The air travel industry was on the brink of disaster, but travellers are still taking to the skies
Despite facing headwinds, the industry — and passengers' desire to fly — appears to have rallied
It seemed like airlines were on the brink of disaster heading into the peak summer travel season, with the Middle East war causing chaos and uncertainty, closing airspace in many areas and sending fuel prices soaring.
For weeks, headlines seemed to point toward a doomsday scenario. Fuel prices more than doubled in April. Europe was on track to run out of jet fuel by June, the International Energy Agency warned. Many airlines — including those in Canada — cut less profitable flights as a result. Florida-based Spirit Airlines fully shut down in May.
Despite all those headwinds, the industry — and passengers' desire to fly — appears to have rallied. Europe avoided its crisis by finding other sources of fuel, while passenger traffic has held steady, expected to increase by 2.1 per cent this year.
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This summer even saw a new record: July 23 had the most global commercial flights ever tracked — a whopping 153,359, according to Flightradar24, a live flight tracker.
"What we're seeing is increased scheduled air traffic," said Ian Petchenik, Flightradar24's communications director. "It's really as simple as that."
Peak travel season
Total air passenger demand fell 1.7 per cent in June, according tothe International Air Transport Association (IATA). However, this was a smaller drop than the preceding months, and much of it was concentrated in the Middle East, which saw a 13.9 per cent fall year over year.
There isn't one single explanation for the July record, experts told CBC News. But it was likely fuelled by demand from the Northern Hemisphere, Newsweek reported, as airlines have been deploying maximum capacity for the season when travel typically peaks.
The last Thursday or Friday of July is usually the busiest, says Petchenik, as many see it as the peak of the summer season, just before school begins in August in much of the U.S.
For this summer in particular, he says, many of those flights were likely booked well in advance.
LISTEN | Canada's domestic tourism boom:"A lot of people looking at the state of the world … before prices really spiked and saying, 'Maybe we should book now to get ahead of any incoming price increases.' "
Canadian commercial flights increased over the summer, as well, by Flightradar24's count, rising by 16 per cent between April 1 and July 23 to hit 5,558. Global commercial flights increased by 11 per cent that same time period.
But the number of flights alone doesn't always paint the full picture, said Amra Durakovic of Flight Centre Travel Group Canada. That's because our total annual commercial flight count remains 20 per cent below 2019, she said, citing data from analytics firm Cirium.
The global increase in flights is likely driven by large, emerging economies like China and India, which are increasing their flights as their markets grow.
However, countries with more established flight industries — like Canada — have instead increased the size of the average plane, while phasing out smaller ones. That means more people are served in the end.
Where Canadians are going
On July 23, most Canadian travel was domestic, accounting for more than a third of all bookings, according to Flight Centre data.
Durakovic says her firm hasn't seen that happen since before the COVID-19 pandemic, and she notes it's likely that people are rerouting trips that originally would have been to the U.S.
Still, the U.S. was the second most popular destination that day, at 19 per cent, followed by European countries like the U.K., Italy and Spain, at 18 per cent combined.
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Durakovic also noted an interesting trend among Canadians heading to Europe: They tended to book their flights last minute, as opposed to the typical approach of booking in advance.
"They've adopted what we refer to as a wait-and-see approach," said Durakovic, who attributed the trend to ongoing uncertainty around factors impacting the industry, like fuel costs and contract disputes.
Meanwhile, summer travel through Flight Centre Canada to Japan is up 37 per cent year over year — a significant sum considering the East Asian country is a long-haul flight away, at a time when cost remains a priority for many.
Notably, that demand is extending into the winter months, Durakovic says, as Canadians are finding it can be more affordable to ski in Japan, largely due to the weak yen.
"That's what is largely driving a lot of Canadians' travel decisions is where are they going to find the best value?"
What lies ahead
So far, the Middle East war hasn't seemed to significantly affect summer plans outside that region. But that may change the longer it goes on, alongside events like the recent WestJet strike, for example, which can erode confidence in travelling.
"I think that the more uncertainty there is and the higher prices rise … we will see a pullback in demand," said Petchenik of Flightradar24.
He says that could also trigger a shift to more local travel: "You know, 'I am buying a ticket, but … I'm flying somewhere where the prices are reasonable and I have certainty that my trip isn't going to be affected by world events outside of my control.' "
WATCH | How the war affected flight prices in March:As for ticket prices, expect them to continue increasing, according to IATA. Airlines are still profitable, but their margins are under severe pressure due to fuel prices and with few ways remaining for them to cut costs.
Durakovic says she still expects demand to remain high in the near future.
"Look, it's a lot, but when we travel, we all love it, right?" she said, noting that people are generally willing to cut other costs to afford travel. "It says a lot about how important travelling is."