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Even among the sea of first-timers, blue-bloods and downright oddball Democratic candidates hoping to rout the Republicans at this year’s US midterm congressional elections, the oyster farmer from Maine stood out. Despite having little political experience, Graham Platner, a gravelly voiced Marine Corps veteran, was touted as a beacon of hope in the Democrats’ attempt to take the fight to Trump.

Running on a platform of Robin Hood-style aspiration – “I’m a working-class guy that lives a working-class life” – Platner, 41, was rubber-stamped as a Democratic candidate for the nation’s Senate in June. However, he suspended his campaign a month later, after an allegation of sexual assault surfaced, which he denies but which led to prominent supporters including Senator Bernie Sanders withdrawing their backing.

As the months have gone on, and the primary elections that led up to the midterms have progressed, various other high-profile candidates have lost their tilts for party nomination – such as New Yorker Jack Schlossberg, the grandson of John F. Kennedy, and sitting congressmen Al Green from Texas – while others have prevailed, including the popular Georgia senator Jon Ossoff and a handful of young progressive New Yorkers backed by left-wing mayor Zohran Mamdani.

“The Democrats are amped up,” says Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney. “They feel this is their last chance to stop Trump.”

On the Republican side, Louisiana senator Bill Cassidy, one of the few Republican senators who voted to convict Donald Trump on incitement of insurrection charges at his second impeachment trial following the 2021 attack on the US Capitol, was defeated by the Trump-backed candidate Julia Letlow. In Texas, Trump endorsed the firebrand Attorney General Ken Paxton days before voting wrapped up in a heated runoff, despite Paxton’s opponent John Cornyn having backed the president’s agenda on the campaign trail.

These are just some of the contests playing out across the nation as its 50 states endure the often gruelling “primaries” in which parties select candidates for November’s midterms. How do the midterms work? What chances do the Democrats have of winning back Congress? And who might emerge as the party’s best hopes for the 2028 presidential election?

The midterms are a barometer of sentiment towards the government.Artwork Nathan Perri

How do parties choose candidates for the midterms?

Midway through each presidential term, the United States holds “midterms”. In the US House of Representatives, each of the 435 seats represents a congressional district, each home to roughly 750,000 people. In the Senate, which has two seats for each of the states, terms run for six years, with a third of the 100 spots (33 or 34, depending on the cycle) coming up for contest every two years.

In the 2026 midterms, 33 regular seats are up for re-election, and there are elections for another two – those vacated by J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio, who resigned as senators to become vice president and secretary of state, respectively. A total of 35 Senate seats are in play this year.

Both the House and the Senate, together known as Congress, are controlled by the Republicans – by narrow margins.

In the House, Republicans claim a majority of 218 seats (which includes an independent who votes Republican) to the Democrats’ 212, with five seats vacant due to resignations or deaths.

In the Senate, Republicans have a majority of 53 seats to the Democrats’ 47 (which includes two independents who vote Democrat).

Many states tack on other elections to the midterms, too – such as those mandated for attorney general and lieutenant governor – so voters have to turn out only once for the whole shebang.

Parties choose their candidates for the midterms using “primaries”, a winnowing round of elections run by the states, which each has different rules for how people can vote and what makes a winner. (In Iowa, for example, you could win with, say, 40 per cent if the next closest had 34 per cent, but in Texas, you need at least 50 per cent of votes in the first round, and, failing that, the top two vote-getters compete at a “runoff” election.)

The midterm primaries kicked off this year on March 3 in Texas, Arkansas and North Carolina, and they’ll conclude with Delaware on September 15. Twists such as run-off elections, which happen when no one received enough votes in the initial primary to be declared a winner, are just one complication that can stretch out the primary season by months and drain campaign funds.

An estimated 46.2 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots at the last midterms.

The midterms are always held on the first Tuesday that follows a Monday in November, which this year is November 3, as per a law passed in 1845. (Weekends were considered church time, Wednesdays were market days.) Today, of course, Tuesday – a regular workday – seems an odd day to ask voters to turn out, and many don’t, the US not having compulsory voting. An estimated 46.2 per cent of eligible voters cast ballots at the last midterms, in 2022, slightly higher than average (in 2014 it was just 36.7 per cent).

Democrats will be hoping this year that more of their supporters will make the effort – energised to cock a snook at Trump – while Republicans who are not necessarily Trump fans might choose to quietly stay home. Romping home in the House, as is expected, and flipping the Senate, which is possible, would give the Democrats control over the passage of legislation and frustrate the Trump administration’s agenda. It would also re-energise the party ahead of the 2028 presidential campaigns after the disappointment of Kamala Harris’s 2024 run, which was initially frustrated by doubt over whether Joe Biden would run again.

Barack Obama at a taco restaurant with Democratic nominee James Talarico in May.Getty Images

What’s the likelihood of a ‘blue wave’ in the midterms?

Midterms are often thought to reflect the popularity or otherwise of an administration. “They’re really a referendum on the president,” says Bruce Wolpe. “The Democrats are amped up. They feel this is their last chance to stop Trump. What’s the future of the Trump presidency? That’s what’s really at stake here.”

To take control of the House, the Democrats need to improve by at least six seats to get to a majority of 218.

Three of the past five midterm elections were considered “wave” years, in which the party that didn’t control the White House flipped 25 or more House seats. It can be even more dramatic: the Democrats went backwards by 54 seats in 1994 under Bill Clinton, and 47 under Lyndon Johnson in 1966 during the Vietnam War.

But in 2006, the party won a net 30 seats in a blow to President George W. Bush, then mired in the Iraq war, and in 2018 improved by 41 seats overall, at least in part due to some of Donald Trump’s more controversial policies, such as his pledge to build a wall across the border with Mexico. That was also the year that much-touted potential Democratic presidential candidate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won her House seat for the first time.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez speaks to journalists in Washington in May. Getty Images

Polling suggests 2026 could produce a similar blue wave. Trump’s popularity has plummeted, including thanks to a cost-of-living crisis, stubborn inflation, high petrol prices and the uncertainty of the war in Iran. “Economic insecurity of Americans is absolutely a motivating factor,” says Emma Shortis. “Trump promised to address that, and he materially has not, he’s made those conditions worse, and I think Americans understand that, and for many of them, that will be a deciding factor in their votes.”

To take control of the House, the Democrats need to improve by at least six seats to get to a majority of 218; in the Senate they need four to get to 51. Both scenarios are possible. “As it stands right now it looks like the House is highly likely to flip Democratic and the Senate is within reach for them,” Wolpe says.

But it’s far from a given. “The Democratic Party is undergoing a robust discussion with itself about how to win again. That means a lot of viewpoints, a lot of energy and a lot of candidates,” Democratic strategist Ian Russell told Politico last year.

Then there’s the redistricting controversy. Republicans have changed numerous district boundaries, a complex process that has been described by some as gerrymandering, or unfair manipulation.

And history shows that the Senate doesn’t necessarily follow a “blue wave” scenario in the House. In 2018, the Republican Party was wiped out in the House but actually gained two seats in the Senate, at least partly because Trump campaigned aggressively in the handful of states in which the Democrats were vulnerable.

‘The big question is how is anyone going to define success in this election?’

Cory Alpert is a PhD researcher at the University of Melbourne who worked for three years as an advance associate in the Biden-Harris administration. “The big question,” he tells us, “is how is anyone going to define success in this election? Donald Trump is going to spin this however he wants, but what feels like a win to the American public on either side? It probably feels like a pretty significant victory for Democrats to pick up three Senate seats, and if they’re able to close the gap in the House or even win back the House, that again feels like a victory. I think the range could be the Democrats picking up a few seats but [they] don’t win back a majority, or it could be an even bigger Democratic landslide than we might expect.”

Former vice president Kamala Harris greets supporters ahead of a fireside chat about the future of elections in the US, in Las Vegas in May.Getty Images

When will Democratic presidential candidates show their hands?

Almost as soon as the 2026 midterms are over, all attention will turn to the next round of primaries, kicking off with Iowa in early 2028 – the ones that will decide the candidates for the next presidential election. It’s early days but some names are emerging as likely contenders. “I expect a big field, at least 10 candidates, and I think that’s good for the party, will be good for the country,” says Bruce Wolpe, who flags a likely Kamala Harris comeback. In April, she said she was “thinking about” running for president again in 2028 and would keep people posted.

Emma Shortis’s rule of thumb? “I think you can sometimes tell by who’s released a book,” she laughs. That crowded field includes Harris, New Jersey senator Cory Booker, Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky governor Andy Beshear and outgoing California governor Gavin Newsom.

New Yorker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 36, is “one of the most compelling figures to have emerged from the Democratic Party over the past few years”, says Smith. Another “young” achiever is Pete Buttigieg, 44, a former secretary of transportation who would be the first ever openly gay nominee for president. “His drawbacks would be if the Democratic Party is at a point in 2028 where they are looking for a real progressive; he is not that. He is very firmly associated with the moderate side of the party,” says Smith.

Beshear, the Democratic governor of conservative Kentucky, is an economic populist and committed Christian, says Smith. “His big pitch is he knows how to win in conservative America and he’s popping up in a lot of states that are very important to primaries. He has his messages that Democrats have failed to talk to ordinary Americans in a language they understand.”

This Explainer was first published in May 2026 and has since been updated to reflect developments.

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