With Japan, China faces a corrosive security dilemma

Japan’s latest defence white paper confirms Chinese strategists’ fears that post-war pacifist guard rails are being dismantled under the guise of ‘self-defence’

For Beijing, Tokyo’s apparent conclusion that the US security umbrella is structurally leaky confirms warnings of alliance fragility, even as it heightens anxiety about autonomous powers rearming. Japanese Defence Minister Shinjiro Koizumi’s admission of a Pacific “defence vacuum” reinforces to Beijing that Tokyo is filling a gap Washington appears to have left.

Japan alleges that Beijing’s drills around Taiwan aim to normalise its military presence as “a fait accompli”. Beijing says these are needed to protect its sovereignty. Yet Tokyo’s claim helps it justify rearmament. The white paper’s warnings of grey-zone blockades and a tilting cross-strait balance serve as domestic rallying cries.

Tokyo now frames the East and South China seas and the Taiwan Strait challenges as a single threat, branding China-Russia patrols “demonstration activities”. A new chapter on “new forms of warfare” draws on Ukraine drone and artificial intelligence lessons. The defence production section calls the industry “defence capability itself” – a move Beijing would see as embedding militarisation into Japan’s economy.