THE BEST APPROACH

The best approach here, much as in combating Somali pirates more than a decade ago, is to internationalise the defensive forces.

A first step could be putting the merchants into convoys of three to five ships, and escorting each with a guided-missile frigate or destroyer. It would be a good idea to let Europe take the lead - the European Union was extremely effective in counterpiracy operations - perhaps coordinated as a deployment of NATO’s Standing Naval Forces. No matter the coalition makeup, there are good bases in Djibouti, including French military facilities andthe US naval station at Camp Lemonnier.

With careful diplomacy, it might be possible to expand the mission to include participation by local states. Given the stream of revenue enjoyed by Egypt from the Suez, it might be willing to use its relatively large navy. Jordan has its port city of Aqaba at the north end of the Red Sea. And the Saudis have vital oil terminals on their long Red Sea coast. Strategically, Arab navies could operate to the north of the strait in the Red Sea, while Western forces protect the convoys to the south in the Gulf of Aden.

If these measures prove ineffective, it may be necessary for the US to resume strikes on land targets in Yemen, as it did before a tenuous truce was reached in May 2025. Some low-risk but high-payoff targets would be the Houthis’ logistical links with Iran; drone maintenance and production facilities; ballistic-missile storage areas; and command-and-control nodes.

A Houthi closure of the Bab el-Mandeb wouldn’t just affect global shipping - it would be a way for Iran to broaden the war against the US beyond the Persian Gulf. The best way to keep that from happening is to learn from the past and plan for it now.