Brazil · Politics
Key Facts
—Runoff scenario. Lula (PT) leads Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) 45% to 37% in a simulated second round.
—First-round numbers. Lula holds 39% of voter intentions, while Flávio Bolsonaro has 33% among 12 pre-candidates.
—Polling details. Genial Investimentos commissioned the survey of 2,004 voters, conducted July 10-13, 2026.
—Margin of error. The poll has a ±2 percentage point margin of error and a 95% confidence level.
—Trend line. Lula’s lead grew from a near-tie in April (40% to 42%) to an 8-point advantage in July.
A new Quaest poll Lula shows the Brazilian president widening his lead over rival Flávio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for the 2026 election, according to data released on Wednesday, July 15.
A new Quaest poll measures a 2026 runoff between Lula (right) and Flavio Bolsonaro (left).
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Quaest poll Lula runoff numbers
The survey, commissioned by Genial Investimentos, puts leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 45% support in a head-to-head matchup. Flávio Bolsonaro, a senator and son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, trails with 37%.
The 8-percentage-point gap marks a clear shift from April 2026. Back then, a Quaest poll showed the two nearly tied, with Flávio Bolsonaro at 42% and Lula at 40%.
This swing represents a net change of 10 points in the margin between the two candidates over roughly three months. For foreign investors, a widening gap often reduces short-term political uncertainty, as markets begin pricing in a higher probability of continuity.
The June 2026 Quaest survey had already signaled this direction, showing Lula ahead 44% to 38%. The July numbers confirm that trend is holding and even accelerating slightly.
First-round voter intentions
In the first-round scenario with 12 pre-candidates, Lula leads with 39% of voter intentions. That is up from 37% in April.
Flávio Bolsonaro, from the right-wing Liberal Party (PL), holds 33%. Other names, like Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of the Novo party, each poll at 4%.
The remaining eight pre-candidates are stuck at 3% or less, suggesting a deeply polarized race with little room for a third-way breakthrough. For expats and observers, this means the election is increasingly a two-man contest.
Brazil’s election system requires a candidate to win over 50% of valid votes in the first round to avoid a runoff. With Lula at 39% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%, a second round on October 25 looks almost certain.
Regional shift in the Southeast
The latest data confirms a nationwide shift toward Lula. However, the specific breakdown for Brazil’s populous Southeast region was not detailed in the July 15 release.
Earlier Quaest polls in March and April 2026 had shown notable regional variations. The Southeast, home to states like São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, is a critical battleground.
Historically, the Southeast carries the largest share of the electorate and tends to swing between left and right. Any movement there often decides the national outcome.
While we lack the precise regional numbers this time, the overall 8-point national lead suggests Lula has likely improved his standing in this key area. Readers with business ties to São Paulo or Rio should watch for future regional breakdowns.
Poll methodology and context
The pollster interviewed 2,004 voters aged 16 and older between July 10 and 13. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.
The survey is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court (TSE) under number BR-07181/2026. It reflects a growing distance between the two frontrunners as the October election approaches.
Genial Investimentos, a Brazilian financial services firm, regularly commissions Quaest polls to gauge the political climate. This partnership is well-known in Brazilian markets and the results are closely watched by traders and analysts.
Voting is mandatory in Brazil for citizens aged 18 to 70, which means turnout is typically high and polls tend to be more predictive than in countries with voluntary voting. The 95% confidence level means that if the survey were repeated 100 times, the results would fall within the margin of error in 95 of those cases.
What it means for expats and investors
For foreign residents and investors, a stable lead for the incumbent often translates into policy predictability in the short term. Lula’s government has signaled a focus on social spending and a pragmatic economic team, which has calmed some market fears since his return to office in 2023.
However, an 8-point lead three months before the first round is not a guarantee of victory. Brazil’s political landscape can shift rapidly, and the memory of Jair Bolsonaro’s stronger-than-expected performance in 2022 remains fresh.
Currency and stock markets tend to react positively when the frontrunner’s lead widens, as it reduces the odds of a contested or uncertain transition. The Brazilian real and the B3 stock exchange in São Paulo may see a short-term boost from these numbers.
Expats should also note that Flávio Bolsonaro, despite trailing, retains a solid base of 33% to 37%. That means nearly two in five Brazilian voters still back the opposition, so political debate will remain intense in workplaces, social circles, and media.
What happens next
The official campaign period begins in August, when candidates will start formal advertising on television and radio. This is often when polls see their most significant shifts, as undecided voters tune in.
Lula will likely try to consolidate his lead by highlighting economic improvements and social programs. Flávio Bolsonaro will aim to close the gap by appealing to anti-incumbency sentiment and his father’s enduring conservative base.
Future Quaest polls, along with surveys from Datafolha and Ipec, will show whether the 8-point gap holds or narrows. For now, the trend line clearly favors the sitting president.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the latest Quaest poll show for Brazil’s 2026 election?
It shows President Lula leading Flávio Bolsonaro 45% to 37% in a simulated runoff, an 8-point gap. In the first round, Lula has 39% support against 33% for Bolsonaro among 12 pre-candidates. The survey interviewed 2,004 voters between July 10 and 13, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
How has the Lula vs. Flávio Bolsonaro matchup changed?
Lula’s lead has widened significantly. An April 2026 Quaest poll showed Flávio Bolsonaro slightly ahead at 42% to 40%. By June, Lula led 44% to 38%. The July figures confirm a clear trend, with the president now holding a solid 8-point advantage as the October election nears.
Who commissioned the July 2026 Quaest poll?
The survey was commissioned by Genial Investimentos, a Brazilian financial services firm that regularly partners with the Quaest polling institute. It interviewed 2,004 voters from July 10 to 13 and has a margin of error of ±2 percentage points. The poll is registered with Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court under number BR-07181/2026.