As voters in the Cook Islands prepare to head to the polls in a high-stakes general election, they will have much to reflect on. Over recent years, politics in this small island nation has been defined by fierce debates about deep-sea mining, diplomatic rifts with ally New Zealand and a major reshaping of the country’s foreign partnerships.

In an exclusive interview with the Guardian, days before Wednesday’s poll, Cook Islands prime minister Mark Brown defended his four-year term and the decisions he made that have seen this South Pacific nation of 17,000 people pushed into the international limelight, turning it into a battleground for influence between Beijing and western powers.

In 2025, Cook Islands struck strategic partnership deals with Beijing, sparking severe alarm in Wellington. The rift was formally patched after the signing of a new bilateral agreement with New Zealand in April.

Brown acknowledged the diplomatic fallout “does have bearings” on voters, saying “our people are quite mindful and aware of what happens in the geopolitical space”.

“For us in the Cook Islands, it’s important that these engagements are on our terms … and that their collaboration with us is on areas that we’ve identified as priorities for the Cook Islands.”

According to a poll conducted by Cook Islands News, Wednesday’s election will be a close race between Brown’s Cook Islands party and challenger the Cook Islands United party, led by Teariki Heather, who organised a public protest against the partnership agreement with China last year.

That partnerships agreement significantly affected Cook Islanders at home and in New Zealand, Heather said, adding that Brown should have been transparent from the start about the documents signed on behalf of the country.

“What prime minister Mark Brown did has upset the people. It is not the way to act,” Heather said. “For us, the Cook Islands people, humility is most important. We respect that relationship with New Zealand – it has been set in concrete since 1965.”

The economy and cost of living pressures are key issues for voters. When Brown took office in 2020, the Cook Islands faced major economic uncertainty amid the Covid-19 pandemic. Two years later, as he led his party to victory in the 2022 general election, the country was still reeling from border closures that decimated its primary economic engine – tourism – which traditionally accounts for roughly 70% of GDP. Debt swelled as the government struggled to “keep things alive, keep businesses going”.

“Today our economy is the strongest it’s ever been in its history,” Brown said. “We’ve managed to halve the debt that we took on in 2022. We’ve had significant year on year growth exceeding 10% per annum.”

Like other small island states in the South Pacific, the Cook Islands has been hit hard by inflation and global energy shocks caused by chaos in the Middle East.

“When this fuel price spike occurred as a result of the conflicts in Iran, immediately we saw the impacts of that with unstable fuel supply, huge spikes and increases,” he said. The administration established a fund to absorb extreme swings in energy prices.

Brown’s foreign policy moves have also triggered intense domestic debate and ruffled feathers across the Pacific.

After Cook Islands struck deals with China in 2025, New Zealand – which maintains constitutional “free association” ties and provides citizenship to Cook Islanders – temporarily halted millions in aid. Wellington accused Rarotonga of a lack of transparency, and Brown called the reaction patronising.

However, he said the signing of the Defence and Security Agreement “really allayed a lot of fears that people had about our relationship with New Zealand”.Brown insists that establishing defence boundaries with New Zealand allows the Cook Islands to freely pursue economic relationships elsewhere without compromising security ties.

“In matters of security and defence, our partner is New Zealand – that’s clear in everybody’s minds, not just our people, but internationally as well.”

Developing relationships with other countries “and not relying just on one country is important for us as a country, to maintain and build our economic resilience”.

China remains a cornerstone of that strategy, particularly for infrastructure programmes, alongside expanding engagements with India, South Korea, Japan and the United States.

“China remains an important partner, not just for the Cook Islands, but right across the Pacific,” Brown said.“It’s the largest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand and some of our other Pacific Island countries.”

He said China has a “huge development programme” which supports many countries in the Pacific, including in infrastructure.

The deep-sea mining question

The US is showing heightened strategic and economic interest in the country’s deep-sea polymetallic nodules, which are rich in critical minerals needed globally for the transition to renewable energy technologies.

Environmental groups and some regional leaders warn that seabed extraction could cause irreversible damage to fragile marine ecosystems. Brown, however, maintains that research must precede any definitive verdict.

“The exploration phase is still being undertaken,” Brown said. “There is no mining that is taking place right now. And there will be no mining that takes place until and unless we can be satisfied that its impacts will not affect our marine environment.”

Brown said ongoing research is building a significant body of data that is attracting interest from global research institutes. This knowledge, he noted, will deepen understanding of the deep ocean, facilitate potential mineral extraction to diversify the economy and position the Cook Islands within the global transition toward renewable energy.

Cook Islands political analyst William Numanga said the outcome of the election would be closely watched by international partners, particularly New Zealand and China.

However, he emphasised that the election should not be seen simply as the Cook Islands choosing between the two.

“New Zealand remains our closest constitutional partner, with deep family, historical and economic ties, while the Cook Islands will continue to build relationships with China and other international partners where they support our national interests,” Numanga said.

He said the challenge for the next government will be to maintain the relationship with New Zealand while pursuing an “independent foreign policy that puts the interests of Cook Islanders first.”