Leni-Raffy, Sara-Imee tandems draw in hypothetical 2028 race — poll
MANILA, Philippines — The hypothetical tandem of Naga Mayor Leni Robredo and Sen. Raffy Tulfo is tied with the supposed alliance of Vice President Sara Duterte and Sen. Imee Marcos in a hypothetical 2028 presidential-vice presidential race.
Polling firm OCTA Research’s survey results found that 45% of Filipinos would vote for Robredo as president and Tulfo as vice president, while 42% said they would vote for Duterte and Marcos for the same posts.
Those who rejected both assumed tandems were at 8%, while 4% were undecided and 1% refused to answer.
The survey stressed that both hypothetical tandems were tied within the survey’s margin of error.
“Because the margin of error on a head-to-head comparison is wider than the margin of error on either tandem's number taken alone, this three-point gap is not a reliable signal of who is actually ahead: the race is statistically a toss-up,” OCTA’s “Tugon ng Masa” survey read.
The survey was conducted from July 4 to 11 through face-to-face interviews with 1,200 male and female Filipinos aged 18 and above across the country. The study has a ±3% margin of error at a 95% confidence level.
OCTA said the survey only reflects hypothetical preferences that may change through candidate positioning, alliances, national issues and campaign dynamics.
‘Generational divide’
The survey said the gap between the two hypothetical camps reveals a generational divide.
Within the 18 to 64 years old age bracket, the supposed Duterte-Marcos tandem was more preferred by the working-age group, while the assumed Robredo-Tulfo alliance gained more support from youth and elders.
Duterte-Marcos became the choice of 50% of Filipinos aged 25 to 34, also 50% of those 35 to 44, and 48% of those aged 45 to 54.
In the respective age brackets, Robredo-Tulfo only garnered 33%, 35% and 43%.
Meanwhile, Robredo-Tulfo was backed by 52% of youth aged 18 to 24 and 48% of adults aged 55 to 64.
Duterte-Marcos gained only 32% of support from the youngest age bracket and 40% from the older range.
The supposed Robredo-Tulfo tandem was also supported by 60% of those aged 65 to 74 and 76% of Filipinos 75 years old and above. Those who favored Duterte-Marcos declined in these older age brackets, only garnering 29% and 23% support, respectively.
By class, education
Based on socio-economic class, the survey found that the Robredo-Tulfo duo was preferred more by upper-to-upper-middle-class and lower-middle-class Filipinos.
The assumed tandem was supported by 41% of those who belonged to Class ABC and 48% of those in Class D.
This was higher than the support for Duterte-Marcos, which stood at 37% and 41% in the respective classes.
On the other hand, the Duterte-Marcos tandem garnered more support from Class E, or the lowest socioeconomic class, with 53%, compared to Robredo-Tulfo’s 33%.
Meanwhile, in terms of educational background, support for Duterte-Marcos was higher among those who had college and postgraduate degrees, at 40%, compared to 36% who favored Robredo-Tulfo.
The Robredo-Tulfo tandem was more preferred by those with vocational education, with 54% support compared to Duterte-Marcos’ 30%; those with high school education, with 47% against 45%; and those with no formal education or elementary schooling, with 46% against 40%.
OCTA noted that the survey is a reflection of current public sentiment and not a prediction for the May 2028 elections.
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