U.S. trade will top $6 trillion for the first time in 2026, a remarkable milestone, if exports and imports in the coming months follow recent historical growth patterns.

It will have been only four years since U.S. total exports and imports surpassed $5 trillion for the first time, in 2022, should it happen this year.

U.S. trade first surpassed $1 trillion in 1993. It surpassed $2 trillion for the first time 11 years later in 2004. The $3 trillion barrier fell just three years later in 2007. It took another 11 years to top $4 trillion, which happened for the first time in 2018.

Through the first six months of 2026, U.S. trade totaled $2.98 trillion. For U.S. trade to reach $6 trillion, the second half would need to account for 50.28% of the annual total, or about $3.02 trillion.

Why does it look quite possible? Since 2018, when the nation first surpassed $4 trillion, the second half has accounted for more than 50% of annual U.S. trade in every year but one. In fact, it has topped 50.28% – the percentage required to top $6 trillion – all but one year.

That one year was last year, and it requires an asterisk. 2025 was the year President Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs against the world. Announced on April 2, those tariffs were preceded by—and then intensified—substantial front-loading of shipments intended to avoid higher duties.

Should the United States surpass $6 trillion, it would mean that the daily export and import average total would be $16.44 billion. That’s if the nation’s airports, seaports and border crossings – which includes motor vehicle and rail bridges as well as pipelines – were operational every day of the year, holidays and weekends included, 24 hours a day.

They are not. In practice, trade does not move evenly across every hour of every day. Seaports, airports and border-crossings have different schedules and constraints.

Using a more standard 250 workdays a year, at eight hours a day, the total would be $24 billion per day. At that level, trade per American would come to $17,500 per person, $26,500 per working-age American.

Which exports and imports have grown the most since 2022, when the nation first topped $5 trillion. What trade partners have experienced the most growth in that time, propelling the United States toward $6 trillion? If you are paying attention to the world around you, there really won’t be too many surprises.

Since we only have 2026 data through June, I will use the same first-half data for 2022 to calculate the growth in trade. I will focus on just the exports in this post and return with a similar post looking at the imports.

Seven of the exports that grew the most in value also grew the fastest – by the largest percentage, when I limited the calculation to the top 50 categories. Those have accounted for more than two-thirds of all U.S. exports this year; limiting it to the top 50 eliminates outliers with extraordinary percentage growth from an exceptionally small base.

Gold posted the largest dollar increase among U.S. exports, up $56.99 billion to $70.47 billion on an increase of 422.94%. That was more than three times the 88.86% growth recorded by total U.S. exports over the same period. It currently ranks fifth among all U.S. exports, up from No. 14 in 2022.

The fastest growth by a top 50 export was silver, which increased more than 1,539% to rank as the nation’s No. 16 export by value, an increase from No. 35 in 2022.

Although both metals benefited from price appreciation, the drivers of their trade growth differ. Gold trade appears to have been driven in part by investor uncertainty surrounding the global economy, wars and U.S. trade policy. Silver, on the other hand, is widely used in industries like solar energy, artificial intelligence and electric vehicles.

Following gold, those exports with the most growth are:

1. Civilian aircraft and parts, up $39.54 billion, equal to 88.86%. This is largely a Boeing story, as the jet manufacturer continues to regain momentum.

2. Computers increased $28.14 billion, an increase of 211.82%. Much of this growth appears connected to massive investment in artificial-intelligence infrastructure, though the effect is even more apparent on the import side..

3. Oil increased $20.65 billion, equal to 37.21% growth and one of three that, while growing the most, was not among the top 10 by the rate of growth. Oil is the second most valuable U.S. export, up from No. 3 in 2022.

4. Computer parts increased $20.01 billion, a growth rate of 242.11%. Like computers, this is almost certainly tied to AI investments. The category has entered the top 10, at No. 9, from No. 22 in 2022.

5. Silver is sixth. The increase was $14.52 billion to $15.47 billion.

6. Cell phones and related equipment, with an increase of $9.57 billion, a percentage change equal to 59.79%. Ranked 13th in 2022, it now ranks 12th.

7. Low-value shipments increased $9.46 billion, a 41.12% increase. It has gone from the No. 7 export to No. 5. This is most closely associated with e-commerce but would include documents shipped by courier services as well.

8. The category of insulin, hormones and steroids, which increased $7.09 billion to $7.99 billion, an increase of 788.90% from 2022. It advanced from a rank of No. 51 to No. 22. This category includes GLP-1 drugs, which played more prominently on the import side over the last couple of years.

9. The category of vaccines, plasma and other blood fractions, which increased $6.52 billion, an increase of 30.08%. That is the lowest percentage growth among the top 10, more of a sign of its long-term steady growth as a U.S. export.

Switching to the fastest-growing top 10 exports, there are only three yet to be mentioned, two of them aviation-related.

By percentage, these are the 10 fastest-growing exports: Silver; insulin, hormones and steroids; gold; computer parts; computers; digital storage devices; civilian aircraft and parts; aircraft engines and parts; misc. aircraft parts; and cell phones and related equipment.

Of the three not mentioned in the previous section, digital storage devices grew the fastest, at 127.86%. The value change was relatively small, at $5.04 billion to $8.99 billion. The No. 40-ranked U.S. export in 2022, it advanced to rank 22nd this year.

Aircraft engines and parts increased 79.52%, adding $3.74 billion for a total of $8.45 billion. It now ranks No. 24, up from No. 32 in 2022.

Misc. aircraft parts increased 60.24%, adding $1.65 billion to make the 2026 total $4.39 billion.

Overall, U.S. exports have grown $222.59 billion since 2022, the year that U.S. trade first topped $5 trillion. Imports have increased $125.70 billion in that same time period. I will tackle those in the next post.