With Russiaâs share in Indiaâs oil imports progressively climbing up, any abrupt shift away from Moscowâs crude appears unlikely in wake of the fresh Trump tariff threat emerging from the US, says Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) in its latest report.
According to GTRIâs analysis, Russia accounted for over 50% of Indiaâs crude oil imports in July.
âRussia supplied an estimated 52% of Indiaâs crude-oil imports in July 2026, up from 48.6% in June. The estimate indicates that more than half of Indiaâs imported crude now comes from Russia, sharply limiting New Delhiâs ability to reduce these purchases at short notice,â says GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.
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According to GTRIâs analysis, in June India imported crude oil worth $14.8 billion from all sources, of which $7.2 billion came from Russia. This translated into a Russian share of 48.6%.
For July, the government released data showing India's overall imports from Russia at $8.9 billion but did not disclose how much of that consisted of crude oil. Since crude accounted for 82% of India's imports from Russia in June, GTRI applied the same proportion to July's figures, estimating Russian crude imports at around $7.3 billion.
India's crude sourcing pattern has undergone a major transformation.
India's dependence on Russian crude has risen sharply over the past few years. Russia's share in India's crude oil imports climbed from around 15% in 2022 to 30.3% in FY2025-26. This has only gone up in recent months amid the US-Iran war.
At the same time, the combined contribution of Gulf suppliers has declined significantly, dropping from more than 55% in 2022 to below 30% by June 2026. The conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruptions to global supply chains further accelerated this shift, increasing the importance of Russian crude in meeting India's energy needs.
What the US bill for sanctions on Russia could mean
The proposed US sanctions could leave India facing a difficult decision.
If the proposed US legislation on Russian sanctions is enacted, India could be exposed to additional tariffs of up to 100% should it continue importing Russian energy.
âThe measure could force India to choose between reducing its Russian oil purchases and protecting its exports to the US,â says Srivastava.
However, he notes that India has limited room to make an abrupt shift.
What the Russia sanctions bill means
âReplacing a supplier that now accounts for more than half of imported crude would be difficult, costly and potentially disruptive. Alternative suppliers may not be able to provide comparable volumes immediately or on equally favourable commercial terms,â he says.
A sharp cut in Russian crude imports could raise India's oil import bill, disrupt refinery operations, widen the trade deficit and add to inflationary pressures. It could also increase the country's dependence on an already volatile West Asian region, Srivastava adds.
According to the GTRI founder, India should continue buying Russian crude oil.
âDiscounted Russian crude has lowered Indiaâs import costs, diversified its supplies and strengthened energy security. India should continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it remains commercially attractive and complies with applicable rules,â he says.
âAmerican tariff threats should not determine Indiaâs energy policy. Differences with Washington should be addressed through firm negotiations, not unilateral concessions that raise Indiaâs energy costs and weaken its strategic autonomy,â he adds.
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