Please forgive me for providing an Iran war update that is a bit more telegraphic than usual. But many of the new sightings are in the res ipsa loquitur category.

Aside from Iran continuing to attack UAE vessels, the action in the Strait of Hormuz arena have been limited. We’ll turn soon to Ansar Allah and the Saudis, which now is a hotter front. However, the US and Iran are still making noises that they will escalate, and at least with Iran, there is reason to pay heed.

On the US front, the press is carrying conflicting stories, Most mainstream outlets are amplifying the idea that the US will keep the blockade on and bring Iran to its knees through economic strangulation. For instance, the lead headline at Aljazeera:

This comes off as black humor in light of the fact that the navy is already cracking under the strain of its blockade thus far. Nevertheless, from the live feed:

• US Vice President JD Vance has outlined Washington’s key objectives in the Iran conflict as keeping energy prices stable for Americans, preventing Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons and securing a stronger US position.
• US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth says that the US can sustain its blockade against Iran “indefinitely”.

Is there yet a prediction market opportunity to bet on how much longer Hegseth remains his post?

Hindustan Times provides on-stop shopping on the contrary reports that CENTCOM chief Brad Cooper was just in Israel, pushing for escalation. This segment is unduly reliant on the questionable-because-anti-Iran bias Twitter account Iran International, but both YouTube and other Twitter accounts have reported on the underlying Israel Channel 13 story.

A bit of backstory: Brad Cooper has long been known to be a hawk. Per Robert Barnes, who has advantaged access to court gossip, Dan Caine, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has been as forceful as one can be given the bubble in which Trump operates in pointing out the limits of viable US operations and the downsides of hawk fever dreams like a ground operation. But Barnes has also suggested that Caine was being marginalized. Whether the scandal over the terrible conditions on the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and (once the press and Congresscritters got on the case) its overdue rotation out of theater sufficiently damages Hegseth so as to put the other escalation advocates on the back foot remains to be seen.

In the meantime, Iran is continuing its change in posture so as to be driving events rather than reacting to the US. From PressTV’s landing page:

An adviser and aide to Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei says the Leader’s strategy for Iran to shift the war to an offensive phase if its conditions are not met will “undoubtedly change the equations of power in the world.”…

“The definite strategy of the Leader to make the war offensive if Iran’s conditions are not fulfilled will undoubtedly change the equations of power in the world,” {Mohammad] Mokhber wrote.

PressTV also has a very fresh account that Iran downed yet another MQ-9 Reaper drone over Hormozgan in Southern Iran. The story adds:

This came a day after the Washington Post reported that the United States has lost 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones since launching its war of aggression against Iran, with Iranian air defenses bringing down roughly a quarter of the US fleet and exposing the vulnerability of one of Washington’s key surveillance and strike platforms.

According to the report, the losses could cost US taxpayers more than $1.3 billion, with each Reaper estimated to be worth between $30 million and $50 million, depending on its configuration.

When the war began on February 28, the US had approximately 185 Reapers, including 165 operated by the Air Force and 20 by the Marine Corps.

Mind you, the US is inflicting real damage on southern Iran…..on civilian activities. From DropSite in U.S. Infrastructure Strikes Have Left Iranians in the South Without Livelihoods:

When U.S. strikes resumed in early July following a two-month pause, the attacks focused heavily on southern Iran. Interviews with residents in hard-hit southern provinces like Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Sistan, and Baluchestan describe strikes not only on military facilities, but also on critical civilian infrastructure, including fishing ports, bridges, telecommunications networks, power plants, hospitals, and transportation corridors.

Dozens of communications towers have been knocked offline in repeated attacks, disrupting internet and telephone services. One attack on a transmission tower near Tappeh Aluakbar in Bandar Abbas killed five people, including a woman who died shielding her son with her body, local residents told Drop Site.

Transportation infrastructure has sustained similar damage. Alireza, a resident of Hormozgan who studies screenwriting and is carefully tracking recent events in the hopes of making a documentary about the war, described strikes on Tappeh Aluakbar overlooking Bandar Abbas, bridges linking Bandar Abbas to Khamir and Rudan, railway infrastructure, and key transportation routes connecting the province. At one destroyed crossing, road crews carved a temporary dirt route through a dry riverbed within hours simply to keep vehicles moving.

The damage extends to the sea as well: Alireza estimates that roughly 300 civilian fishing boats have been destroyed across Bandar Abbas, Bandar Lengeh, Sirik, and Jask, affecting the livelihoods of thousands of people. Two maritime search-and-rescue vessels operating near Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Hormuz Island were also put out of service.

Kharg Island, Iran’s principal oil export terminal, has long featured in discussions among U.S. officials and defense analysts as a strategically significant site and was bombed in March during the U.S.-Israeli aerial campaign. According to an Iranian military analyst who spoke to Drop Site on condition of anonymity for security reasons, if the U.S. ever sent ground troops to take over the island, Iran’s ability to reinforce Kharg would depend heavily on the transportation networks running through Hormozgan.

“They’re not simply destroying roads,” the analyst said. “They’re reducing Iran’s ability to move personnel, equipment, and supplies before any future operation ever begins.”…

Even at military sites, the targets appeared designed to maximize casualties rather than just weaken military capabilities.

Perhaps I am missing something, but I do not understand why Iran would need to move personnel or assets to Kharg if the US were to do Iran the huge favor of attempting a ground invasion. Iran can deny the US logistical support with missiles, drones, sea drone, and fast boats. It can also pound soldiers and supplies on the island (which has no bunkers) again with missiles and drones.

Even though southern Iran is taking a serious economic hit, it is also looking as if the too-eagerly-anticipated oil crunch is coming over the horizon. From OilPrice yesterday in Hormuz Stalemate Raises Risk of $120 Oil:

• Oil markets remain torn between hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal and worsening physical supply constraints, with Hormuz traffic at two-month lows and inventories steadily declining.
• Refined products are facing the biggest squeeze, as diesel, gasoil and jet fuel supplies tighten amid Middle Eastern and Russian refinery disruptions, pushing refining margins to record highs.
• A market tipping point could arrive by late September or early Q4 if Hormuz flows remain restricted, potentially sending crude prices toward $120–140 per barrel as inventories run down.

And in keeping today, Fallout Spreads Across the Middle East as the Iran War Grinds On:

Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery with two drones on Thursday, the second claimed attack on the Red Sea facility in less than a week and the third since July 25. Neither Saudi Arabia nor Aramco has confirmed the attack as of the time of writing. Bloomberg cited a person familiar with the incident as saying a storage tank sustained negligible damage. Last month, the Houthis threatened to blockade Saudi oil flows and have also attacked Saudi targets and shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb, while military activity is increasing along Yemen’s internal front lines. The US-Iran war is threatening to return Yemen to a state of active civil war after a 2022 truce that saw an end to large-scale fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces.

Iran attacked two vessels linked to the UAE’s state-owned ADNOC as they transited Hormuz on Thursday, with no injuries reported and apparently limited damage. The UAE condemned what it called a “hostile Iranian attack,” while ADNOC said the situation had been brought under control.

And a continuing theme: Hormuz Tanker Traffic Slumps as U.S.-Iran Standoff Drags On:

Tankers moving along the Strait of Hormuz dwindled further this week, with only five crossings on Wednesday and nine crossings on Thursday, down from a monthly average of 12 crossings, according to data from Kpler, as cited by Reuters.

Five tankers went into the waterway yesterday, according to the data, and four exited it, most of them moving along the Iranian corridor.

Traffic via the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea was in the double digits, with Kpler reporting 19 commodity carriers passing the waterway on Thursday. The data only covers vessels with their transponders switched on, Reuters noted in its report.

Saudi Aramco piled on in its presentation to investors on second quarter earnings.

Key messages included that an average of 11 million barrels a day have left the market, that the ability to draw on inventories to fill the gap is coming to an end, and that inventories will need to be rebuilt if and when things ever normalize. This does not mean SPR refilling, which could be pushed off for a bit. A big issue is all the inventories at sea (as in on tankers) as well as private inventories (oil storage).

Walter Bloomberg, on his site, points out that diesel crack spreads have reached a new high:

But the US, not knowing what else to do, is doubling down on failure. From Bloomberg’s landing page:

The US will soon announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, intensifying the Trump administration’s effort to force Tehran’s capitulation after almost six months of war.

“Watch this space for more announcements coming next week because we are going to apply measures like have never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country,” Bessent said in an interview with Newsmax on Thursday. The move will be part of a “one-two punch” that includes the continued blockade of Iran’s ports, he added.

It was Bessent who just made the ludicrous claim that the Strait of Hormuz would be irrelevant because pipeline. He is looking more and more like an Trump Mini-Me, except for his height: another arrogant random bad idea generator.

Briefly to the US speedy volte-face on the status of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln after disgusting on-board conditions and crew psychological fraying due to an unheard-of time at sea. The US is speeding another carrier, the George Washington, to the scene as the Abraham Lincoln can be rotated out.

Of course Pete Hegseth loudly denies that this move became necessary as ugly fact came out. From The Hill in Hegseth calls dire conditions aboard USS Abraham Lincoln ‘completely misrepresented’:

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday claimed that conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier have been “completely misrepresented” following reports that sailors, struggling with low morale during a grueling deployment, have attempted to jump overboard.

Speaking with Newsmax, Hegseth did not directly address reports of supply shortages, water contamination and deteriorating mental health on the Abraham Lincoln, nor did he say when the vessel would return stateside after leaving San Diego in November.

Larry Johnson describes how the military is being strained to the breaking point in The Butcher’s Bill Comes Due: A Military Run Past Its Limits, and the Leaders Who Keep Saying Everything Is Fine:

When the Secretary of the Army orders every officer and sergeant in the force to personally check on every soldier, every single day, that is not a routine holiday gesture. It is an alarm. And in the ten months since Dan Driscoll issued that order, the alarm has kept ringing — from a carrier in the Arabian Sea, from a secretive command at Fort Meade, from the families of sailors who can no longer get a straight answer about why their children are hungry. The stories arrive from different branches and different missions, but they add up to a single indictment: the American military is being run past the limits of the people inside it, and too many of its leaders have responded not by fixing the problem but by denying it exists….

It would be dishonest to collapse four situations into one conspiracy, and equally dishonest to pretend they are unrelated coincidences that happened to land in the same year across the same military. The truth is structural, and it has an address.

The common accelerant is a war with Iran now in its sixth month, layered on top of years of high operational tempo — and operational tempo is not an act of God. It is a policy choice about how many missions to run, how long to keep carriers forward-deployed, and how hard to push a cyber force that never appears on a casualty list. Someone chooses that pace. The recurring second thread is the response to evidence: an Army secretary who at least named the failure in writing, set against a Defense Secretary who called firsthand reporting “fake news” and a fleet that answered allegations of a broken crew with assurances about mission capability. A military that cannot admit its people are breaking cannot protect them, because the first step in every prevention program ever written is to acknowledge the problem out loud.

It is not surprising to find that the Abraham Lincoln is not an isolated case:

🚨EXCLUSIVE: Military families and service members are now describing horrific conditions across MULTIPLE ships: human waste flooding bathrooms, virtually no food, water or soap, months without port calls, exhausted crews, and no end in sight.

This crisis appears to be far…

— MeidasTouch (@MeidasTouch) August 14, 2026

Now to growing stress in Israel, which Larry Wilkerson in particular has been discussing for quite a while. The Financial Times confirms some of his assessment in, The exodus from Israel, that Israelis increasingly would not see good reason to remain if safety risks rose and day-to-day living became difficult:

Jonathan didn’t want to leave Israel…

Then one evening, as he returned to his apartment in Tel Aviv, he ran into the child of one of his neighbours. They spoke, and the boy, aged five or six, said he would see Jonathan that night in the building’s shelter, where residents would go to take refuge from missiles launched by Israel’s foes.

“That was one of the big breaking points for me . . . [I thought:] that’s the future of the country and this is what he knows,” Jonathan recalls….

By international standards the share of Israelis who have left over this period is not huge. But for Israel the outflow is highly unusual — and has already had an outsized impact. Combined with a drop in immigration, the exodus turned Israel’s net migration negative in both 2023 and 2024 — something that happened only three times in the preceding century. Analysts expect overall figures for last year, which are not yet available, will also be negative.

With studies — including one last week from Israel’s tax authority — suggesting rising numbers of those leaving are high earners, it has also awakened fears of a brain drain that could, if sustained, do serious damage to Israel’s tech-heavy economy, its public finances and even its military….

Migration is driven by multiple factors. But few who study it doubt that Israel’s polarised political climate and three years of unrelenting warfare — during which Israeli forces have laid waste to Gaza and southern Lebanon, and Hamas, Hizbollah and Iran have fired thousands of missiles at Israel — have played an important role in the current wave of emigration….

For some Israelis, the idea of emigrating is inconceivable…

But among secular and more liberal Israelis, who have watched on as the country has lurched to the right under successive Netanyahu governments, concerns about the direction of the country are visceral. Many in this camp regard October’s election, which will pit Netanyahu’s coalition with extremist and ultrareligious parties against a more politically heterodox but largely secular opposition, as a make-or-break moment for Israel….

Emigration in the first half of 2025 was 20 per cent lower than the same period a year earlier. But net outflows are still expected for the year overall. Economists warn that if these persist, they will exacerbate the looming demographic strains on an economy in which male members of the fastest-growing population group — ultra-Orthodox Jews — have traditionally not entered the workforce or taken part in Israel’s obligatory military service.

This month’s study by Israel’s tax authority found the rate of departure of affluent Israelis, including high-tech and healthcare workers, was almost twice as high in 2023 and 2024 as in 2019. If repeated, the annual loss in tax receipts could swell to $3.5bn in five years, it added.

The findings echoed another study this year by researchers from Tel Aviv University, which found an increasing net outflow of Israelis who worked as doctors and engineers, or had a high-tech education or one focusing on science, engineering and maths.

We’ll end with this confirmation that the US is, like genocidal Israel, beyond redemption:

The NYT confirms the Pentagon tested an experimental PRISM missile packed with 180,000 tungsten pellets on an Iranian sports hall. Washington used a girls volleyball team as test subjects, massacring 21 civilians. pic.twitter.com/yQVXJvW2Bt

— 🇷🇺 STANISLAV KRAPIVNIK 🇷🇺 (@STANISKRAPIVNIK) August 13, 2026