Refining the possibilities in Nigeria’s chequered social cohesion, By Adéwálé Àjàdí

To make a 2075 prediction a probability, we must engage these matters critically with emotional intelligence and design a system that will make our diversity prosper. It starts with the willingness to understand objectively and critically who Nigeria is.

The Nigerian state is often underestimated in its complexity and how deep it is in its diversity, as well as complexity. Like most deeply diverse entities, it requires a truly humble understanding, complemented with an intentional, as well as adaptive engagement. Unfortunately, by virtue of the success of its colonial indoctrination, there is a constant desire to validate or invalidate Nigerian evolution on a very simplistic negative feedback basis.

One process that engages with a deeper, critical understanding that is important to the way ahead is the Nigeria Social Cohesion Index (NSCI), published annually by the Africa Polling Institute. It is based on 14 factors that are used to interview people across Nigeria annually. The 2026 survey interviewed 5315 individuals across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, covering issues of identity, trust, social justice, civic participation, polarisation, tolerance, gender equity, disability, impunity, corruption, natural resource governance, security and peace building, and a few other indicators.

According to the Global Economics Paper, by Goldman Sachs, Nigeria will be the fifth largest economy in the world with an estimated GDP of $13.1 trillion by 2075. The pathway towards making this a reality involves transforming the formal operating systems, which are often colonial or borrowed, into those that are able to work with the complexity of the country and its people. For example, recognising that we are one country with over 372 ethnic nationalities, not tribes, and truly embracing this by avoiding the winner-takes-all methods of electing government and guiding towards not just a representative democracy but also a participatory one.

| | |
|---|

The Social Cohesion Index is building a foundation into the diversity and complexity, as well as bringing to the forefront the kind of critical inquiry and thinking that will be the pathway towards a genuinely participatory engagement with Nigerian diversity.

The findings of the Social Cohesion Index were interesting but challenging, as the depth of the report was truly full of gems. Here are some for reflection and expression. The overall Index score of 48.8 per cent is the highest ever in the six years of reporting and just a little short of the 50 per cent, which would be a true milestone. For the first time in the history of the report, the ‘identity’ indicator – 52 per cent of respondents – identifies with Nigeria.

As I sat at the launch of the 2026 Nigeria Social Cohesion Survey report, watching traditional rulers and religious leaders engage with this powerful document, it seemed clear that we need to become more intentional about the design of an authentic operating system that will truly embrace our diversity, and it is certainly more than the current US-type presidential constitution, with its implicit tyranny and hegemony of the majority. Nigeria remains a rarity, a country without a clear hegemonic ethnic nationality but a regular competition between the Igbo, Hausa, and Yoruba, with its many toxic flaws and expectation that other proud ethnic nations will be satisfied with possibilities.

The findings of the Social Cohesion Index are interesting but challenging, as the depth of the report is truly full of gems. Here are some for reflection and expression. The overall Index score of 48.8 per cent is the highest ever in the six years of reporting and just a little short of the 50 per cent, which would be a true milestone. For the first time in the history of the report, the ‘identity’ indicator – 52 per cent of respondents – identifies with Nigeria. This is an incredible achievement of natural interdependence and the evolution of shared identity, with minimal direct intervention from the government itself.

On the factor of ‘trust’, critical to the effective operation of the country and its economy, we have a mixed picture, with only 3 per cent high trust, 44 per cent little trust, 29 per cent some trust, and 24 per cent no trust at all. Yes, trust is all over the place, but for those of us who study it as an issue, it is a constantly evolving process that will continue to be dynamic in a country with a complex makeup like Nigeria.

Another indicator is ‘social justice’, which 75 per cent of the respondents believe is low, even though it is better than the 79 per cent of 2025. It is, however, a toxic aspect of the Nigerian society that the experience of ‘social justice’ is so low. Another factor is the level of ‘civic participation’, which is very low at 16 per cent. It is therefore not surprising that another factor on ‘polarisation’ shows that 42 per cent believe the level of disunity in the country is high, with politics identified as the leading cause of this. A factor that is heading strongly in the right direction is that 13 per cent think ‘impunity’ is high, which is a big fall from the 43 per cent who considered this as high in 2025.

The social cohesion index should be a key discussion point in beer parlours, church halls and marketplaces amongst Nigerians, as we love to debate matters that are topical about our country. The silence on the data set in the wider media and across the elite is surprising. It reminds me that for the second year running, Nigeria ranks highest in the world as the most generous people, and the indifference that accompanies that has also surprised me.

One area of serious reflection is that 59 per cent of the respondents rate ‘corruption’ as high, and 62 per cent rate the government’s efforts to combat this menace as poor. One surprise is the low score given to ‘tolerance’, with 85 per cent rating it as low.

Can one conclude that we would rather judge individually and subjectively, looking for blame, rather than understand the complex web of the strands that hold us together? To make a 2075 prediction a probability, we must engage these matters critically with emotional intelligence and design a system that will make our diversity prosper. It starts with the willingness to understand objectively and critically who Nigeria is.

Adéwálé Àjàdí, a lawyer, creative consultant and leadership expert, is author of the newly released Afrilition: 21st Century African Manifesto, and Omoluwabi 2.0: A Code of Transformation in 21st Century Nigeria.