Egypt’s US$8bn IMF Programme Ends 15 December

EGYPT · ECONOMY

Where the Egypt IMF programme stands

The Fund’s Executive Board completed the seventh review of Egypt’s Extended Fund Facility on 30 July, alongside the second review of a separate Resilience and Sustainability Facility. The staff report documenting that decision was published in the middle of August, which is why the numbers are only circulating now.

The two reviews together released about US$1.8bn: SDR 1.11bn, roughly US$1.5bn, under the Extended Fund Facility, and SDR 200m, roughly US$272m, under the sustainability window. Cumulative drawings across both arrangements now come to about SDR 5.4bn, or some US$7.3bn.

The headline facility is unchanged at US$8bn. It began at US$3bn in December 2022 and was enlarged in March 2024, in the weeks after the Ras El Hekma investment from the United Arab Emirates reset Egypt’s foreign-currency position.

The four-month clock

What has changed is the calendar. The arrangement was stretched to 48 months at the fifth and sixth reviews and now expires on 15 December 2026.

That matters for how the later numbers should be read. Anything the Fund projects for the 2027/28 or 2028/29 fiscal years is a forecast about a country no longer inside a programme, not a target anyone is contracted to hit.

Egypt has not publicly said whether it will seek a successor arrangement, and neither the Fund’s statement nor the staff report refers to one. Until it does, the honest description of the position is that the country has four months of formal Fund supervision left and no announced plan for what follows.

Growth is running ahead of the forecasts

The Fund’s own statement puts real growth at 5.0% in the third quarter of the 2025/26 fiscal year and 5.2% across the first nine months. That is a faster pace than the projections that circulated earlier in the year.

Inflation has come down a long way without reaching comfort. Headline and core inflation were both 14.3% in June, though the Fund noted that seasonally adjusted month-on-month core inflation was still running at 1.5%.

The current account deficit sat at about 4.5% of GDP in the same fiscal year. For a country that spent 2023 rationing dollars, that is a meaningful improvement rather than a solved problem.

The privatisation that keeps not happening

The weakest part of the record is the asset-sale programme. Recent divestment proceeds came to roughly US$520m, helped by the Gabal El Zeit wind transaction and finance-ministry sales of shares in listed companies.

That is well short of what the programme envisages, and the gap is the reason the sale of a 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance now carries so much weight. Egypt is targeting about EGP 14 billion, roughly US$280 million, from the stake sale.

EFG Hermes has been appointed sole global coordinator and bookrunner, and the sellers are aiming to complete the transaction before the end of the year. Investment and Foreign Trade Minister Mohamed Farid said in late July that valuation work and investor negotiations were under way ahead of the offering.

The company itself is not small. Founded in 1900, it holds about 22 percent of Egypt’s life market by premiums, reported shareholders’ equity of about EGP 42bn (about US$840 million at 50.26 Egyptian pounds to the US dollar on 17 August 2026; figures as at September 2025), and carries a B++ financial strength rating from AM Best.

What an outside investor should watch

Three things decide whether the next four months go well. The first is whether the Misr Life offering actually prices.

The second is whether Cairo opens talks on a successor arrangement before the current one lapses.

The third is the Suez Canal, which remains Egypt’s most exposed foreign-currency earner. Canal receipts have been under pressure from regional disruptions, making the waterway a key risk to external finances.

Read against the rest of the region, Egypt is in the unusual position of having the growth and the reserves moving in the right direction while the structural reform lags. Whether that combination survives the end of supervision is the question the staff report cannot answer.

Frequently Asked Questions

When does Egypt’s IMF programme end?

The Extended Fund Facility now runs to 15 December 2026, after being stretched into a 48-month arrangement. That leaves roughly four months from the seventh review.

How much has Egypt drawn under the IMF programme so far?

Total purchases and disbursements under both the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility stand at about SDR 5.4bn, or roughly US$7.3bn. The seventh review released a further US$1.8bn.

What was Egypt’s growth rate in the 2025/26 fiscal year?

The IMF put real growth at 5.0% in the third quarter of FY2025/26 and 5.2% across the first nine months. Those are the Fund’s own figures from its 30 July statement.

Which Egyptian state company is being sold next?

A 20% stake in Misr Life Insurance is the flagship sale, with EFG Hermes appointed sole global coordinator and bookrunner. The sellers are targeting completion before the end of 2026.

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