China’s property recovery is fragile, but ignoring it is a mistake

Japan’s commercial property market is in a league of its own, but the sharp repricing in China creates compelling opportunities for investors

Global commercial real estate investment markets are roaring back to life. In the first half of this year, direct investment in commercial property rose 27 per cent in annualised terms. The sharpest increase was in the Asia-Pacific, where transaction volumes were up 38 per cent to US$92.5 billion, the strongest half-yearly performance on record, according to data from JLL.

China is now the fastest-growing commercial property investment market in the Asia-Pacific. However, a sharp rebound from a low base is one thing, a recovery based on solid foundations is quite another.

Moreover, demand is driven by domestic buyers, particularly owner-occupiers. In Shanghai, self-use demand accounted for 45 per cent of transactions in the second quarter, which JLL said “reflects corporates’ strategic tendency to lower long-term operating costs through property acquisitions”.