Risk calculators that doctors use to estimate a person's risk of a heart attack or stroke work about as well for predicting certain cancers, according to a new study by UCL (University College London) researchers.

The tools, used widely by GPs and hospitals in the UK and in the US and Europe, estimate a person's percentage risk of getting a heart attack or stroke over 10 years based on factors such as age, BMI, and smoking status – factors also linked to a higher risk of cancer.

The new study, published in the European Journal of Cancer, found that, among adults aged 40 to 84, the tools estimated risk of common cancer types - including bowel, prostate and breast cancer - about as well as a specialist cancer risk calculator. For several other cancers, including kidney, laryngeal (throat) and gastro-oesophageal (stomach and gullet) cancer, they performed about the same or better than they do for heart attack and stroke.

More and more evidence is emerging that many cancers can potentially be prevented. Detecting cancer early through screening is important and is what health systems currently focus on, but there is also more we could do to prevent cancer from developing in the first place."

Dr. Sam Quill, Lead author, PhD student, UCL Institute of Cardiovascular Science

For the study, the research team looked at four very similar tools that are used to assess heart disease and stroke risk: QRISK3 (widely used in the UK), the Pooled Cohort Equations (widely used in the US), SCORE2 (Europe) and SCORE2-OP (used in Europe for older people).

They tested how well these models performed for cancer using anonymised patient data from UK Biobank as well as general practices across the UK.

Data was analysed from more than five million people in total, with researchers comparing the models' risk estimates with actual occurrences of heart disease and cancer in people aged 40 to 84, over 10 years.

The repurposed tools estimate a percentage risk of any cancer occurring over 10 years as well as of specific cancers over the same period. Although the tools perform about as well in the prediction of certain cancers as heart disease, their predictions are not perfect in either case.

The researchers found that, after age and sex, the most influential factors for cancer risk used in the QRISK3 model were smoking status and blood pressure (high blood pressure may not cause cancer directly, the researchers noted – but it is likely to be linked to other factors that increase cancer risk, such as physical inactivity and excessive alcohol intake.)

The QRISK3 tool is integrated into GP and hospital computer systems throughout the UK. In England, it is used as part of the NHS Health Check, a free five-yearly check of heart health for adults aged 40 to 74.

People who have a higher risk (10% chance of heart attack or stroke over 10 years) are typically offered statins and in some cases blood pressure-lowering medication, as well as given advice on healthy living.

Dr Quill said: "In the UK, we currently offer statins to people at higher risk of heart disease using the QRISK3 tool. Our study suggests the risk of certain cancers could be estimated at the same time. However, the value of these tools in cancer prevention needs to be weighed carefully against wider efforts to reduce cancer risk for everyone. More research is needed to explore which approach and which interventions work best."

The work was funded by the Health Data Research UK, the British Heart Foundation, the charity Rosetrees and UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). The researchers also received support from the National Institute for Health and Care Research University College London Hospitals Biomedical Research Centre.

Source:

Journal reference:

Quill, S., et al. (2026). Repurposing cardiovascular disease prediction models for cancer. European Journal of Cancer.DOI: 10.1016/j.ejca.2026.116848. https://www.ejcancer.com/article/S0959-8049(26)00629-5/fulltext