Museveni Says Uganda Is Middle-Income, the World Bank Says Not Yet

Uganda · ECONOMY

Key Facts

• World Bank classificationUganda remains in the low-income group on the July 2026 income list, based on 2025 GNI per capita data and the new FY2027 thresholds effective July 1, 2026.
• Income thresholdsLow income is US$1,175 or less, lower-middle income is US$1,176 to US$4,635, upper-middle income is US$4,636 to US$14,375, and high income is above US$14,375.
• Museveni’s claimIn June 2022, he said GDP per capita was about US$1,046, above the then-stated entry point of US$1,036, with the economy at about US$45.7 billion by exchange-rate method.
• Government figureGovernment-aligned outlets have claimed GDP per capita reached about US$1,399 by end-June 2026.
• Public debtThe IMF’s May 2026 Article IV report projects public debt at about 55.1% of GDP in FY2025/26, rising toward 60% by FY2030/31, with a moderate risk of debt distress.
• Methodology gapThe World Bank classifies by GNI per capita using the Atlas method, not GDP per capita, which is the basis of Uganda’s claim.

What Museveni is selling: an ascent narrative

President Yoweri Museveni has argued for years that Uganda has crossed into lower-middle-income territory. In June 2022, he said the economy was about US$45.7 billion by the exchange-rate method and US$131.6 billion by purchasing power parity.

He put GDP per capita at about US$1,046, above what he called the entry point of US$1,036. Government-aligned outlets have since gone further, claiming GDP per capita reached about US$1,399 by end-June 2026.

The political message is clear: four decades of National Resistance Movement rule have produced structural transformation. Middle-income status, in this telling, is proof that the regime has delivered national progress.

Why the World Bank refuses to endorse the claim

The World Bank’s July 2026 income list still places Uganda in the low-income group. That classification is based on 2025 gross national income per capita data and the new FY2027 thresholds effective July 1, 2026.

The Bank’s methodology is the core of the disagreement. It classifies countries by GNI per capita using the globally comparable Atlas method, not by GDP per capita, which is the measure Museveni cites.

Under the Bank’s FY2027 thresholds, low income is US$1,175 or less. Uganda remains below that first graduation line, even as Kampala insists the country has already moved up.

The economic reality sits in between

Uganda’s macro picture is better than a pure low-income label suggests, but still constrained. The International Monetary Fund’s May 2026 Article IV report projects public debt at about 55.1% of GDP in FY2025/26.

That figure is expected to rise toward 60% by FY2030/31, while remaining sustainable with a moderate risk of debt distress. World Bank material also points to rising debt-service pressures, with public debt around the low-50s percent of GDP.

Debt servicing is crowding out spending, and revenue mobilisation remains weak. The middle-income narrative therefore collides with fiscal deficits and limited room for manoeuvre.

Oil and the geopolitical stakes

Uganda is trying to turn anticipated oil production into a macroeconomic break-out moment. Both the World Bank and the IMF note that oil revenues could strengthen growth and the external balance, though execution risk remains significant.

That gives Kampala leverage and urgency in dealing with external partners. Oil can reduce dependence on donors while increasing the importance of infrastructure finance, pipeline build-out, and state control over rents.

Uganda has long practised hedging rather than bloc politics. It remains embedded in Western-led financial institutions for concessional financing, while keeping room for non-Western partners on infrastructure, energy and security cooperation.

The current debt profile underlines that dependence. World Bank and IMF exposures remain major components of external debt, making relations with multilaterals strategically important as the oil era approaches.

What the classification dispute means for investors

The World Bank classification dispute is not merely symbolic. It affects how investors, lenders and donors interpret Uganda’s risk profile when deciding where to put money.

A low-income label can mean cheaper concessional financing, but it also signals structural constraints. A middle-income claim, if accepted, would change the terms of engagement with external partners.

For now, the two narratives coexist uneasily. Museveni is selling an ascent story, the World Bank is refusing to endorse it, and the economic reality sits somewhere in between.

The oil era will reshape Uganda’s bargaining power with the IMF, the World Bank, China-linked financiers, regional partners and Western governments. That wider contest is part of the story we track in Africa: The New Scramble.

What to watch next

The next World Bank income classification update will show whether Uganda has moved closer to the lower-middle-income line. The Bank’s methodology is unlikely to change, so the gap between Kampala’s claims and the official label may persist.

Oil production timelines and debt-service costs will shape the fiscal picture in the coming years. Investors should watch whether revenue mobilisation improves enough to ease the crowding-out of public spending.

The political stakes are also rising. Museveni’s legitimacy argument depends on showing that four decades of rule have delivered measurable progress, and the middle-income claim is central to that story.

The numbers that are actually published

The World Bank’s classification for the year to 30 June 2027 still lists Uganda as a low-income economy. That classification took effect on 1 July 2026.

The threshold for lower-middle income is gross national income of US$1,176 per person. The World Bank puts Uganda at about US$1,120.

So the gap is roughly US$56 a head, which is close enough to explain why the government believes it has arrived and far enough to explain why the list does not agree.

Figures near US$1,278 and US$1,399 circulate in Ugandan coverage. Neither appears in a World Bank publication we could find, and the two measure different things in any case.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is Uganda a middle-income country?

No. The World Bank still classifies Uganda as low-income on its July 2026 list, based on 2025 GNI per capita data.

Why does Museveni say Uganda is middle-income?

He uses GDP per capita figures, which he says reached about US$1,046 in June 2022 and about US$1,399 by end-June 2026, above the lower-middle-income entry point.

What is the difference between GNI per capita and GDP per capita?

GNI per capita measures income earned by residents, while GDP per capita measures output produced within a country. The World Bank uses GNI per capita with the Atlas method for classification.

Sources

This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error

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