Matt Smith believes Prima Bella’s classy rivals in the group 3 Toy Show Quality (1100m) might “eat her alive late” on Saturday when the in-form mare steps up to stakes grade for the first time.
The Warwick Farm conditioner, though, says the longer he has trained, the more he has realised “you’ve just got to have a go in this game”.
Six-year-old Prima Bella has won three and finished a close third across five 1000m starts this preparation to earn a chance at the fillies and mares sprint.
Prima Bella was a $4.60 TAB chance behind resuming group 1 performers Apocalyptic ($2.30) and Savvy Hallie ($3.70) and Smith said she could be vulnerable late against that opposition when stepping up.
“It looks too tough for her, but the way she’s going, you’ve got to have a crack,” Smith said.
“What are you going to do with her? Leave her home in the box? She’s flying.
“She’s race fit, she’s ready. She’ll just roll forward.
“I just thought if she won the other day, you’ve got to have a crack at a good mares race, but it’s a good race. It’s solid. They are going to sit off her and probably just eat her alive late, but anyway, you’ve got to have a crack, right?”
The prospect of rain on Friday gave Smith hope. She has three wins and two placings in five heavy track starts. Randwick was a soft 7 on Thursday.
“You would be delighted if she runs top four, and if you got a heavy 10 or something, it could be a different story,” he said.
“It might upset a few in the Winx Stakes, too.”
Smith is also having a crack in the group 1 Winx Stakes (1400m), with Idle Flyer ($51). The five-year-old is resuming after breaking through at group 1 level in April against a red-hot field in the Queen Of The Turf Stakes (1600m).
Smith opted to take on an even stronger field on Saturday rather than the group 3 Show County Quality (1200m).
“I think either race is a good starting point, but she had plenty of weight in the Show County, 61kg first up, she probably didn’t need to be carrying that, she’s probably better off in the Winx,” he said.
“She’s not going to beat those horses in a 1400-metre race, so it’s really starting point for her, and she’ll just get better and better in the preparation, once you get to a mile and beyond.
“I am really keen to see where she fits in. She’s had a good, trouble-free prep.
“She’ll run really well and she should bounce out of it because she’s been in work a while, so we’ll go two weeks later to the [Tramway Stakes], then she’ll go to the 7 Stakes probably.
“That’s a fork in the road for us. We go to the Cox Plate or we go back the other way.
“We don’t know where the ceiling is with her. That win in the Queen Of The Turf was really good, so we don’t know where she’s really at. That’s the first time we really sort of stepped her out into a proper race and she was really good, so fingers crossed she can keep going.”