SQM Will Spend US$3 Billion by 2028, Most of It on One Salt Flat
Chile · Mining
Key Facts
- The numberSQM expects capital expenditure of about US$3 billion across 2026 to 2028.
- Where it goesChiefly Salar Futuro, the company’s redevelopment of its operations in the Salar de Atacama.
- The partnerCodelco, the Chilean state copper company, through the joint venture structure agreed for the salt flat.
- The longer figureSalar Futuro itself is described as roughly US$3 billion over seven years, so the two numbers overlap rather than add.
- Why nowSQM reported a record second quarter, with lithium sales driving the beat, and raised its outlook.
- The stated aimMore production and a significantly smaller environmental footprint in the Atacama.
- One thing we could not confirmReports of a US securities regulator closing a bribery inquiry into SQM without penalty could not be verified.
A record quarter, a bigger budget, and a partnership with the Chilean state that will outlast several governments.
SQM had a good quarter — a record one, on lithium — and used the earnings call to extend its spending horizon. The SQM investment plan now runs to 2028 and totals roughly US$3 billion, and almost all of it is going into one place: the salt flat in the Atacama desert the company has worked for decades and is now rebuilding with the Chilean state as its partner.
What the SQM investment plan covers
Management told the second-quarter call that capital expenditure is expected to reach about US$3 billion for the 2026 to 2028 period, mainly to support future growth and cost competitiveness.
The centre of that is Salar Futuro, the redevelopment of SQM’s Salar de Atacama operations, run with Codelco. It is described separately as an investment of roughly US$3 billion over about seven years, aimed at raising production while sharply cutting the environmental footprint of the operation.
Those two figures are not additive. The three-year capex window and the seven-year project budget overlap heavily, and anyone modelling this should treat them as views of the same spending from different angles rather than as separate commitments.
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What Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile does.Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. produces and sells specialty plant nutrients, and iodine and its derivatives in Chile, Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. It offers potassium nitrate, sodium nitrate, specialty blends, and other specialty fertilizers under the Ultrasol, Qrop, Speedfol, Allganic, Ultrasoline, Prop, and Prohydric…
Why Codelco is in the picture
Chile treats lithium as a strategic mineral, and the state has spent the last three years converting that principle into structures. The arrangement between SQM and Codelco is the largest of them: a partnership giving the state a controlling role in the Atacama’s lithium production from the second half of this decade.
For SQM the deal traded control for duration. Its Atacama concessions were due to run out; the partnership extends the operating horizon well beyond that. For Chile it secures a share of the revenue without nationalising an operating business.
The Salar Futuro spending is what that agreement looks like in practice. It is also why the environmental commitments are prominent: brine extraction in the Atacama is politically contested, and the partnership needs local consent it cannot assume.
The quarter behind the decision
SQM’s second-quarter results beat expectations, with record lithium sales volumes and an improved outlook, and the shares rose on the news. Lithium prices have been weak for two years, which makes a record volume quarter the more notable achievement — the company is selling more, not selling dearer.
That is the logic of the capex plan. In a low-price environment, the winners are producers whose costs sit at the bottom of the curve, and Salar Futuro is a cost-and-footprint project as much as a volume one.
Why this matters if you live in Latin America
The lithium triangle — Chile, Argentina and Bolivia — holds the majority of the world’s identified reserves, and the three countries have taken three different approaches. Chile has gone for state partnership, Argentina for tax incentives under RIGI, Bolivia for state control that has produced very little.
This is what the Chilean model looks like when it works: a private operator continuing to run the plant, the state taking a controlling stake and a share of the proceeds, and a three-year capital plan large enough to matter.
The open question is prices. A US$3 billion commitment made during a two-year price slump is a bet that demand recovers before the spending ends. If it does not, the Atacama will still be producing, but the economics of everyone’s lithium plans in the region change.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the SQM investment plan?
SQM told its second-quarter 2026 earnings call that capital expenditure is expected to total about US$3 billion across 2026 to 2028, mainly to support future growth and cost competitiveness. The bulk is directed at Salar Futuro, its redevelopment of operations in the Salar de Atacama.
Is that the same as the Salar Futuro budget?
They overlap. Salar Futuro is separately described as roughly US$3 billion over about seven years. The three-year capex figure and the seven-year project figure are views of largely the same spending, not two separate commitments to be added together.
What is Codelco’s role?
Codelco, the Chilean state copper company, is SQM’s partner in the Salar de Atacama arrangement, which gives the state a controlling role in lithium production there from the second half of this decade while SQM continues to operate. The deal extended SQM’s operating horizon beyond the expiry of its concessions.
Did the US securities regulator close a bribery investigation into SQM?
We could not verify that. Reports of a US Securities and Exchange Commission inquiry being closed without penalty in August 2026 could not be confirmed against any primary source, and the claim should not be treated as established.
Connected Coverage
Sources: Reuters — SQM shares rise after an earnings beat and a higher lithium outlook; Investing.com — SQM Q2 2026 slides: lithium sales surge drives record results
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