How lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic could be applied to current flu outbreak

A professor of public health hopes lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic can be used in the current flu outbreak.

Auckland has had its worst week for flu hospitalisations in a decade, with 177 people admited to the region's four public hospitals, while New Zealand is also close to the highest influenza rate in four years.

University of Otago professor Michael Baker said the late season surge was putting a huge strain on health services.

He said while there was little appetite for the "extraordinary measures" used during the pandemic, the insights gained from that time could be applied to the flu.

Some clinicians were already drawing on Covid-era practices to deal with the current flu surge, he said, such as separating patients with respiratory symptoms.

Baker said the clearly understood Covid-19 alert system - which linked increasing infection risk to stronger measures - had value for seasonal respiratory infections.

"At a baseline level, this approach could mean the usual measures of vaccination and staying home when unwell.

"As respiratory infection activity increases, additional measures could be considered, for example, mask use in healthcare and other higher-risk settings such as waiting rooms and public transport, and additional protections for particularly vulnerable groups, including people in aged residential care," he said."

Baker said the framework could provide a routine way of communicating to the public the risk of a range of illnesses and the appropriate response.

He said New Zealanders were already used to such a system to communicate changing risks from weather, fire danger and other hazards.

"The current influenza surge raises an important question: should we also have an ongoing, nationally understood respiratory-infection risk framework that tells people when the risk is low, when it is increasing, and what they can do to reduce transmission and protect themselves and those who are most vulnerable?"

Fears outbreak could exceed 2022 peak

There are fears the current rapid outbreak of flu cases could exceed the peak year of 2022 in the next few weeks.

A disease modelling expert from Canterbury University, Michael Plank, said soaring cases would likely hit a peak in the next couple of weeks.

These were likely to rise higher than the post-pandemic rebound four years ago, he said, before tapering off in spring. In 2022, PHF Science data showed a flu rate of 27.4 per 100,000 population. For the week ending 16 August, 2026, the rate was 15.39 and rising, with 177 hospital admissions.

Plank said there was a late wave of influenza last year, when the new varient cropped up in around August and September. He said it meant the illness was still present in spring and early summer, when normally it would disappear in September or early October.

"Possibly that late flu wave last year has meant we've had a delayed start to this season, but certainly it's really taken off in the last few weeks and we're seeing very high levels of influenza now."

Plank said it wasn't too late to vaccinate against the flu and that this year's vaccince was well-matched with the current flu strain.

"The good news is that this year's vaccine formulation appears to be well matched with current strains. It's definitely not too late to get a flu jab if you haven't already had one this year and it will provide good protection against sickness."