Barring calamity, Tadej Pogacar will be standing on the podium in Granada in three weeks’ time clad in red. The Slovenian supremo is returning to the only grand tour he has yet to win for the first time in seven years. It was at this race in 2019 where he burst onto the scene, finishing third overall and winning three stages as well as the best young rider’s jersey, with compatriot Primoz Roglic winning the first of his four titles.

By the following summer, cycling’s hierarchy had already been upended, with Pogacar dethroning Roglic on the penultimate stage of the Tour de France for the first of his six grand tour victories. There is now no one in the peloton who is a realistic challenger to the two-time world champion, particularly on a parcours seemingly tailor-made for him.

Decathlon CMA CGM’s Felix Gall, second at the Giro, is well suited to the climbs but will lose minutes against the clock; Roglic is back but at 36 is in the twilight of his career, and his preparation will not have been helped by being hit by a car in training three weeks ago.

Surprises do happen and nothing is certain in three-week racing; Jonas Vingegaard rarely crashes but was forced to abandon this year’s Tour and then end his season early after breaking his collarbone. But it would take an unprecedented collapse or serious misfortune to deny Pogacar the maillot rojo.

What hope for his rivals, then? Much of this year’s route is concentrated in southern Spain, where sweltering late summer temperatures might expose vulnerabilities within UAE Team Emirates-XRG, although – having worked on what was once a weakness, punished in his two Tour defeats to Vingegaard – the heat is unlikely to be such an issue for Pogacar.

Alternatively he may have the Vuelta wrapped up by the end of the first week and concentrate on helping his lieutenants, possibly to complete a clean sweep of the podium, as arch-rivals Visma-Lease a Bike managed at this race in 2023. The luckless Jay Vine is back after crashing out early in the Giro d’Italia, and Joao Almeida is riding his first grand tour of the season after an underwhelming campaign for a rider of his undisputed quality. So the story of the Vuelta may instead be Pogacar as an unlikely Samaritan, shepherding his teammates to glory of their own.

But if the 27-year-old’s pursuit of yet more greatness, and a seemingly inevitable title, leaves some viewers cold, there is plenty else to follow at the year’s most unpredictable grand tour.

The most exciting battle of this year’s Tour was between Mads Pedersen and Jasper Philipsen for the green points jersey, and the points classification should be a thrilling watch in Spain too as Pedersen returns, this time in a duel with Wout van Aert.

Visma-Lease a Bike are fielding a mixed squad which includes 2023 Vuelta winner Sepp Kuss, but the American has always been more of a climber than an outright GC rider despite that win, so the Belgian leads their squad. He and Pedersen lit up the spring – who could forget Van Aert winning an all-time classic edition of Paris-Roubaix against Pogacar – and the resumption of their rivalry is eagerly anticipated.

Visma have another card to play as they hand a grand tour debut to British talent Matthew Brennan, who was single-handedly responsible for a quarter of the entire team’s wins last season. The 21-year-old’s winning percentage has not been as ludicrous this year, but he did win Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne and two stages of the Vuelta a Burgos earlier this month, so arrives in sparkling form.

Another Briton to watch is Oscar Onley. The 23-year-old has had a difficult first season as the face of Netcompany-Ineos’ grand tour hopes, having been stymied by injury at seemingly every turn and openly frustrated at himself, writing on social media after an abandon earlier this year that it was “hard not to feel like I’ve let a lot of people down”. A significant shoulder injury ruled him out of the Tour de France, where he finished an exceptional fourth last year, but he has returned in form and motivated, finishing second overall and winning a stage in Burgos.

This Vuelta a Espana will be his first grand tour riding in Netcompany-Ineos colours and feels a pivotal point already in his young career: instructive both of what he can do with a strong team around him, and of whether the British-Danish outfit has realistic ambitions of being a grand tour power once again, particularly after an entirely anonymous Tour.

It goes without saying that this Vuelta will be raced under a huge cloud as the peloton reels from the death of 19-year-old Finlay Tarling at the Volta a Portugal. Tarling collided with a non-race vehicle which was not prevented from getting onto the course, sparking widespread outrage at the lack of security at the race alongside an outpouring of grief for a talented, popular young rider.

The accident is under investigation by Portuguese police. While racing continues, security and rider safety will be under forensic scrutiny. Last year’s Vuelta was marred by repeated protests which occasionally turned ugly and put riders at risk. That is unlikely to be a problem this time around after the rebranding of Israel-PremierTech, the target of much ire, late last season. But the issue of how organisers and police keep riders from harm will remain, justifiably, under the spotlight.

Ineos were the last team to announce their roster for the race, waiting until two days prior to the start in Monaco, to give Tarling’s brother Josh as much time as possible to decide whether to race or not. The announcement that the 22-year-old would take part was accompanied by a note Geraint Thomas, Ineos’ director of racing: “It also goes without saying that, as a team, we all fully support Josh in his decision to take part in the race.”

To have the strength to ride is awe-inspiring. Results, of course, are secondary at a time like this, and there should be no expectation placed on his young shoulders. But Tarling has a significant opportunity to take the leader’s jersey in the opening day time trial – a result which the entire cycling community will surely wish for.