Rice Shortages Drive Japan’s Food Self-Sufficiency to Record Low

Food and Drink Economy Politics## Far from 45% Target

Japan’s food self-sufficiency ratio on a calorie basis for fiscal 2025 fell to a record low of 37.11% in fiscal 2025 (April 2025 through March 2026), according to data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries. While the total has reached the 37% range before, this level is even lower than the previous record of 37.15% in fiscal 2020.

The leading factors were the shortages and consequent soaring prices of rice in the period, which led to reduced consumption of domestic crops and higher imports, such as of California-grown rice sold in major supermarkets. The government has set a target of 45% for calorie-based food self-sufficiency by fiscal 2030, but that remains a distant goal, even without rice shortages.

Meanwhile, the self-sufficiency ratio on a production value basis rose 2 points to 66%, driven by higher prices for domestic rice.

The self-sufficiency rate is calculated by excluding livestock products produced using imported feed in order to measure true domestic output. By contrast, the domestic production rate does not reflect the feed self-sufficiency rate, treating all livestock raised within Japan as domestic. The gap between the two metrics indicates the degree of dependence on foreign feed.

Apart from domestic production, Japan’s per capital daily calorie intake relies heavily on imports from the United States, Canada, and Australia.

On a production value basis, Japan, the United States, China, and Australia accounted for 82% of the total.

The calorie-based food self-sufficiency rates of Canada and Australia are well above 100%; these countries have small populations and high production of grains and oilseeds. Italy, which exports many high-priced vegetables and fruits, has a strong self-sufficiency rate on a production value basis. Japan’s self-sufficiency rate for both calories and production value remains low compared to other countries.

Data Sources

(Translated from Japanese. Banner photo © Pixta.)