Out of the arson-inspired ashes of Victoria’s crime and corruption crisis, the state government has one last chance to perform the sort of somersault that would win a gold medal at the Commonwealth Games we didn’t host.

Having, like most governments, looked for politically convenient answers to practical problems, we have reached a point where daily dodging and weaving is unsustainable.

Even the most stubborn or stupid politician must know there should be a real response to the rampant corruption around the Big Build, where gangsters are feasting as greedily as a pack of hyenas on a dead zebra.

Cabinet is about to consider a police wish list of new powers to tackle organised crime as a circuit breaker to this paper’s nearly daily revelations of kickbacks, extortion and violence connected with the construction industry.

Perhaps the new body could have a crack at dealing with our daily dose of arson involving young offenders, on orders from Iraq-based Australian cartel bosses, torching bars, tobacco shops, cafes and car yards.

Speaking of tobacco, it comes as a relief to learn that, according to a survey by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, smoking rates have dropped to a historic low.

The trouble with a survey is people tell fibs.

According to wastewater testing, nicotine use is on the rise and the Australian Bureau of Statistics reports smoking is up 40 per cent since 2017 and 80 per cent of nicotine now comes from the black market.

And while Border Force reports record seizures of tobacco, the health survey suggests Victorians are giving up smoking, meaning 1400 illicit tobacco shops must be doing a roaring trade in Chupa Chups and Wagon Wheels.

The reality is we appear to be smoking more than Winston Churchill during the Blitz.

But we digress – back to the matter at hand – a new racket-busting crime body.

Let us put aside for the moment that it will be impossible to set up such a body before the November election, as you need legislation, a board, a chair, investigators, lawyers, offices, a list of targets, and intelligence.

We have had many false dawns. New enforcement bodies, such as the Police Complaints Authority, the Office of Police Integrity and the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission, were all crippled by underfunding and a lack of legislative muscle. Then there is the new Tobacco Licensing Victoria that has not closed one shop. It may be better off distributing ashtrays.

There is a world of difference between rhetoric and reality – promised powers trumpeted as “game changers” have proved unworkable.

Chief commissioners Ken Lay, Graham Ashton and Shane Patton all argued for more powers. Sometimes they were ignored, or legislative initiatives branded as “tough new laws” were diluted by the Justice Department until they were ineffective.

When officials were shown footage of a violent knife attack, they put in an official complaint it was too graphic. Imagine what the victim thought. Actually, don’t. He died.

The theory of how to investigate organised crime is simple – identify the crimes, identify the victims, infiltrate through electronic and human sources, identify the criminals, disrupt their networks, destroy the profit and prosecute offenders.

1. Identify the crimes

Read Nick McKenzie in The Age.

2. Identify the victims

Often difficult in cases such as the Big Build because fear of retribution keeps them silent.

3(A). Infiltrate using electronic sources

Victoria phone tap regulations are no longer fit for purpose. Police have to go to court with victim statements (see 2) or build massive intelligence dossiers to be given a warrant to listen in. One estimate is that Victoria Police taps about 10 per cent of the number of phones that NSW does. It takes detectives about one month of work to reach the same bar that the Australian Federal Police can reach in one day. The exception is that when a life is at risk then the case is fast-tracked.

There are special spy-like tools to decode encrypted apps being used by criminal syndicates to communicate, tools Vic Pol desperately needs. This means local police rely on federal agencies that have their own work to do.

3(B). Infiltrate using human sources

New rules on informers mean snitches have to sign up to a deal that is simply ridiculous, while disclosure laws mean there is an increased risk they will be exposed. Interstate and international law enforcement bodies will not share intelligence with Victoria if their sources can be identified.

4. Identify the criminals

No problem – most of them have social media profiles showing them posing with WAGs and Lamborghinis. Trouble is, many are offshore and unreachable.

5. Disrupt their networks

The most effective way to disrupt is to stop key criminal figures from meeting. This can be done by unlawful association laws in which court orders declaring individuals as gangsters stops them meeting other known gangsters. This led to the Criminal Organisations Control Act (2012), with the government pronouncing: “These new laws will ensure our state is well prepared to deal with the forms of organised crime.”

The politicians didn’t mention the exceptions included meeting for family, business, political, industrial and education reasons. So crooks meeting over the Big Build were given the green light. And if you say you identify as Aboriginal or of Torres Strait Islander descent you are exempted.

The unworkable laws were reviewed, and earlier this year the government said they were strengthened to keep gangsters out of government projects.

The then-attorney-general Jaclyn Symes said: “Organised crime and thuggish behaviour has no place in Victoria – we’re making that clear with some of the toughest laws in the country.”

Police Minister Anthony Carbines added: “Organised crime groups and bikie gangs are on notice – we won’t stand for intimidation and neither will Victoria Police, who won’t hesitate to use these new laws to keep Victorians safe.”

The Criminal Organisations Control Act is known as COCA. It should be called the Criminal Organisations Control Knowingly (meeting for) Unlawful Purposes – or COCK-UP.

You guessed it. Not one person has been issued with one of these notices – ever. If police wanted to disrupt a gang of 20, it would require 400 separate court applications, and it precludes offenders under 18, the very type who may be saved from committing violent crimes if their gangs were broken up. In NSW, thousands of these orders have been granted.

To be fair, the revamped law banned a series of outlaw motorcycle gangs from wearing their colours in public, a method they used to intimidate.

6. Destroy the profit

We have laws that mean assets of those convicted can be seized, yet for 40 years, police have wanted unexplained wealth laws – where those apparently living beyond their means are asked to explain their secrets to success.

7. Prosecute the offenders

Police are good at grabbing the soldiers committing the arsons, abductions and beatings – while the major players remain untouchable.

Premier Jacinta Allan has ruled out a royal commission into Big Build corruption, saying it is a police matter, even when police say they don’t have the power.

Here is the twist: the premier is right to reject a royal commission – on one condition.

She announces a permanent crime commission – not a goldfish dressed as a shark, but a body with real teeth. Let’s not do what we always do – make a big announcement that does not reflect reality.

Her get-out-of-jail card to play is the put-gangsters-in-jail card.

The opposition should commit that, if elected, it would support the commission, providing certainty for those who may work there.

A royal commission is corralled by terms of reference. When it finishes, the expertise is lost. A standing commission deals with all organised crime, not just the issue of the day.

We need to look across the Murray to the NSW Crime Commission and not do a myki and botch it from the beginning. Sydney has gangland hits and organised crime power struggles but has been spared our bar and tobacco wars.

Take their legislation, whiteout NSW, replace with Victoria, whack our coat-of-arms on top, then get on with it.

Their crime commission has coercive powers, holds public hearings and recommends legislative changes. It takes cases referred to it largely by NSW police, gathers intelligence, evidence and follows the money. Its last annual report shows it seized $80 million ($22 million in unexplained wealth) and froze assets of $160 million.

Such a body more than pays for itself.

It could absorb the Office of Special Examiner and the organised crime element of IBAC.

To get it right, the chair should be a former senior Victorian police officer, and it must be staffed by elite investigators, forensic accountants and prosecutors – paying at least $20,000 over the market rate.

Victorian detectives transferred to the commission should be allowed to return with their careers enhanced.

Police could concentrate on the violent offenders while the commission works on the puppet masters. Relieved of many top-end organised crime investigations, police could put hundreds of officers back onto the street – the key plank of Chief Commissioner Mike Bush’s five-year crime reduction plan.

The government that has relied on spin when confronted with allegations of corruption, may finally find itself facing the right direction. This is its last chance to get it right. It is quarter to midnight and the clock is ticking.