Brazil’s Financial Morning Call for Friday, July 24, 2026

Key Facts

The main question this morning is whether Copom can cut the Selic again in August.The Focus survey sees year‑end 2026 inflation at 5.16%.
Brazil releases its July consumer confidence index at 11:00 BRT today.It is a real‑time check on household mood.
The real opens near 5.0841 per dollar.A supportive trade surplus helps steady the currency.
Sabesp (SBSP3) is in sharp focus after leading Thursday’s turnover.It traded R$1.05 billion as investors watch privatisation milestones.
Wall Street’s slide adds weight, but the domestic story holds the reins.A mildly weaker open for the Ibovespa is indicated.

Today’s Focus

Brazil’s market this Friday morning is a tug‑of‑war between rate‑cut hopes and sticky inflation fears. The Focus survey forecasts 2026 inflation at 5.16%, well above the 3% target.

The July consumer‑confidence reading lands at 11:00 BRT. It will show how households feel as borrowing costs stay high.

The real is steadying around 5.0841 per dollar. It is cushioned by a trade surplus forecast of USD 76.2 billion.

What matters today. Whether the 11:00 BRT consumer‑confidence print emboldens or undercuts the base case for another small Selic cut in August.

Ibovespa — Source: EODHD close, 2026-07-23. Figures rendered directly from the feed.

01 The setup in one read

The knot Brazil’s market is trying to untie is a straightforward one. Official inflation prints are cooling, yet the Focus survey sees 2026 inflation at 5.16%.

That dissonance means the Selic is coming down in baby steps. The next test is the Copom meeting in August.

Overnight Wall Street offered no help. The S&P 500 fell 1.21%, and the Ibovespa closed down 0.46% at 176,724.

The real weakened 0.58% to 5.0841. Today’s consumer‑confidence reading will colour the rate‑cut outlook.

| Instrument | Level | Session |
|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (Brazil) | 176,724 | -0.46% |
| S&P 500 (US) | 7,408 | -1.21% |
| USD/BRL | 5.0841 | +0.58% |

| Instrument | Last close | Indicated | Watch today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ibovespa (B3 equity index) | 176,724 (−0.46%) | Lower, tracking Wall Street | 11:00 BRT consumer confidence; global PMI data flow |
| USD/BRL (real per dollar) | 5.0841 (+0.58%) | Holding near 5.08, modest offered tone | 5.09 resistance; US S&P Global PMIs at 13:45 BRT |
| Selic/Copom August odds | 14.25% actual rate | 25bp cut seen as base case, but not fully priced | Consumer confidence and real stability as swing factors |

| Item | When | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil Consumer Confidence (July) | 11:00 BRT | Real-time gauge of household sentiment; shapes bets on August Copom cut vs. hold |
| CFTC BRL speculative net positions | 19:30 BRT (post-close) | Shows how global hedge funds are positioned in the real; prior was net long 32.8k contracts |
| Sabesp (SBSP3) — tariff and privatisation watch | All session | Thursday’s turnover leader (R$1.05bn); traders eyeing any fresh news on water-tariff revision or state sell-down |
| Vale (VALE3) — global iron-ore sentiment | All session | Top turnover stock Thu (R$1.20bn); China demand and overnight commodity moves in focus |
| Petrobras (PETR4) — oil price and payout flow | All session | Second in turnover Thu (R$1.08bn); crude trading lower overnight weighs on open |

Live Market IntelligenceBrazil Morning Call — Live Board

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Brazil Morning Call — Live Board

-0.46%

176,723.62

-0.46%

66,247.47

-1.56%

10,916.70

-0.84%

3,319,522

-1.78%

2,283.28

-0.60%

57,575.02

—

| Instrument | Last | Change | YoY | Prev. | High | Low | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IBOV | 176,723.62 | -0.46% | +30.55% | 177,547.57 | — | — | — |
| USD/BRL | 5.08 | -0.08% | -7.91% | 5.08 | 5.09 | 5.08 | — |
| EUR/BRL | 5.78 | -0.28% | -10.91% | 5.80 | 5.79 | 5.78 | — |
| SELIC | 14.25% | — | — | — | — | — | |
| BRENT | 100.38 | -0.31% | +45.10% | 100.69 | 101.16 | 99.62 | 2,258 |
| WTI | 91.84 | -0.38% | +39.09% | 92.19 | 92.83 | 91.16 | 24,351 |
| IRON ORE | 161.91 | — | +64.24% | 161.91 | 161.91 | 1 | |
| GOLD | 4,027 | -0.49% | +19.45% | 4,047 | 4,054 | 4,025 | 19,244 |
| SILVER | 57.61 | -0.33% | +47.63% | 57.80 | 58.17 | 57.36 | 4,055 |
| LITHIUM | 69.02 | +0.03% | +55.17% | 69.00 | 69.68 | 68.65 | 135,477 |
| SOY | 1,250 | +0.97% | +24.42% | 1,238 | 1,250 | 1,240 | 8,621 |
| CORN | 489.50 | +5.50% | +21.84% | 464.00 | 489.75 | 486.00 | 14,493 |
| WHEAT | 704.00 | +1.11% | +30.01% | 696.25 | 704.25 | 694.75 | 3,832 |
| COFFEE | 310.75 | -1.86% | +1.94% | 316.65 | 321.30 | 308.25 | — |
| SUGAR | 14.68 | -0.41% | -11.41% | 14.74 | 14.90 | 14.65 | — |
| ORANGE JUICE | 145.50 | -3.19% | -57.07% | 150.30 | 148.80 | 144.00 | — |
| COTTON | 81.53 | +2.08% | +21.07% | 79.87 | 81.75 | 79.75 | 15,710 |
| BEEF | 221.48 | -0.77% | -1.92% | 223.20 | 221.90 | 217.38 | 19,933 |
| CATTLE | 340.13 | -0.31% | +3.41% | 341.17 | 340.50 | 333.00 | 9,414 |
| COCOA | 5,367 | +0.73% | -33.94% | 5,328 | 5,411 | 5,165 | — |
| PETR4 | 42.95 | +0.87% | +34.26% | 42.58 | 42.95 | — | — |
| VALE3 | 75.68 | +0.77% | +31.80% | 75.10 | 75.68 | — | — |
| SUZB3 | 42.43 | -0.54% | -18.01% | 42.66 | 42.43 | — | — |
| KLABIN | 17.66 | -1.51% | -4.57% | 17.93 | 17.66 | — | — |
| SLCE3 | 13.77 | -1.36% | -14.13% | 13.96 | 14.06 | 13.69 | 2,340,100 |
| ABEV3 | 15.92 | -1.30% | +17.14% | 16.13 | 16.11 | 15.84 | 18,905,100 |
| ITUB4 | 42.56 | -0.79% | +23.87% | 42.90 | 42.87 | 42.27 | 22,565,100 |
| BBDC4 | 18.72 | -1.32% | +17.88% | 18.97 | 18.99 | 18.68 | 19,154,400 |
| BBAS3 | 20.93 | -0.76% | +3.56% | 21.09 | 20.93 | — | — |
| B3SA3 | 15.65 | -1.57% | +16.88% | 15.90 | 15.82 | 15.48 | 41,084,700 |
| WEGE3 | 45.67 | -2.29% | +20.15% | 46.74 | 46.86 | 44.68 | 13,581,200 |
| PRIO3 | 60.54 | +1.29% | +42.55% | 59.77 | 61.35 | 60.54 | 6,347,300 |
| RENT3 | 37.14 | +0.00% | +2.51% | 37.14 | 37.14 | — | — |
| AZZA3 | 17.05 | -4.27% | -54.07% | 17.81 | 17.71 | 17.03 | 2,368,800 |
| CSNA3 | 5.30 | -1.49% | -39.57% | 5.38 | 5.30 | — | — |
| GGBR4 | 24.06 | +0.00% | +39.72% | 24.06 | 24.41 | 23.83 | 7,631,200 |
| ENEV3 | 25.70 | -1.04% | +83.70% | 25.97 | 25.80 | 25.45 | 3,301,300 |
| LREN3 | 13.37 | -1.26% | -24.16% | 13.54 | 13.37 | — | — |

9 of 31names higher.

Energyled, while

Consumer Disc.lagged.

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