Each year on July 27, North Korea commemorates “Victory Day”, marking what it presents as its triumph in the Korean war. While few outside the country accept that characterisation, the date underscores a reality: the war never formally ended. The 1953 agreement was an

armistice that left the peninsula in a state of suspended conflict.

Responsibility for the resulting instability is widely distributed. North Korea’s missile tests, expanding nuclear arsenal and escalatory rhetoric have undermined regional security. South Korean administrations have added to tensions, the most recent being the ousted Yoon government,

accused of attempting to provoke an attack by Pyongyang to justify its martial law declaration. Russia compounds the picture: its

deepening military cooperation has strengthened North Korea’s military and economic resilience.

Washington’s approach warrants scrutiny, given its central role in the war and any eventual peace settlement. The armistice was signed by the Korean People’s Army, Chinese forces and the United States representing the UN Command – South Korea refused. Because Beijing’s policy does not constitute the principal obstacle to peace, the core of the impasse rests with Washington and Pyongyang.

As a necessary signatory to any future peace agreement, the US holds the greatest capacity to unlock diplomacy, yet it pursues a strategy

increasingly detached from reality.

For decades, US administrations maintained a denuclearisation-first posture: expecting North Korea to substantially dismantle its nuclear programme before meaningful normalisation, sanctions relief or a broader peace process can proceed. Yet North Korea today fields a more sophisticated and survivable nuclear force than before.

The prolonged deadlock has widened Pyongyang’s options. After Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, North Korea

deepened its military cooperation with Moscow and

stabilised relations with Beijing. These shifts expanded its strategic flexibility and eroded much of the leverage Washington and its allies once held.