An internal Labor Party campaign to dump Jacinta Allan as Victorian premier reached a critical stage on Sunday night after an extraordinary meeting of factional conveners resolved to move against her leadership.

The meeting of conveners from across the party’s Left and Right factions was called to determine whether Allan has the caucus backing she needs to lead the government to the state election on November 28.

Four sources with knowledge of the meeting said the room broadly agreed that after nearly three years as Premier, Allan’s days in the top job are numbered. It is less clear how a leadership challenge will unfold.

A defiant Allan, who spent Sunday night at her home in Bendigo with senior advisers, told her supporters that, regardless of what the factional chiefs decide, she would not resign.

The leadership manoeuvres are taking place in the absence of a declared challenger.

Allan’s most likely replacement, Deputy Premier Ben Carroll, has indicated to colleagues that while he would be a contender if the leadership became vacant, he would not use his numbers to bring the premier down.

A contested leadership ballot, just four months out from a state election, would paralyse the government.

Under previously untested party rules, a new leader would be chosen by a caucus vote and ballot of party members, with even weight given to both. The process can take up to six weeks.

In the event of a leadership spill, the deputy leader steps in to run the government. If Allan and Carroll are leadership candidates, both would be sidelined from their day jobs and an interim leader appointed.

There is consternation among some MPs, particularly in the dominant Left faction, that the factional conveners did not sufficiently canvass the views of parliamentarians within their respective groups before Sunday night’s meeting.

The Age has spoken to seven Victorian Labor sources who say they believe Allan would lose if her leadership came to a vote of the party’s 69 MPs.

But one MP told The Age not every faction was represented at the Sunday night meeting and downplayed its significance.

“The premier absolutely has the numbers,” they said.

“Some people don’t want to do the hard work. They want things on a plate and I can tell you now the caucus are there behind the premier.”

As with the last round of leadership rumblings in June, the pathway for a coup is littered with assumptions that have not yet been realised.

Multiple sources from both factions agreed it would be difficult for Carroll, who sits on the Right, to challenge Allan – despite some within her own Left faction wanting him to do so – after he publicly ruled out a challenge at a press conference last month.

After looking the premier in the eye and declaring he would not challenge her for the leadership, Carroll told reporters, “I’ve got a young daughter at home, and I couldn’t be more proud to make sure that she grows up knowing that I supported Jacinta Allan to be a world-class premier and get re-elected in her own right.”

Another option being considered is a delegation of factional leaders speaking to Allan and asking her to step aside.

Two sources said they found it difficult to believe Allan would go down without a fight, but conceded it was not impossible that she could be convinced if it were clear she no longer had the numbers in caucus.

A supporter of Allan, speaking on the condition of anonymity to talk freely, said if the Sunday night meeting showed a majority of MPs wanted a change of leadership, the premier could face a vote of no confidence at Tuesday’s caucus meeting.

“It would be a very brave premier that continued in light of an unfavourable outcome,” they said.

Attorney-General Sonya Kilkenny, speaking earlier on Sunday, said the leadership speculation was “idle gossip”.

“She has my full support, and this idle gossip doesn’t help Victorians,” she said. “It is only hurting Victorians at a time when Victorians need us all to be focused on them, and that is exactly what Jacinta Allan and our Labor government, our team, is doing.”

Over the past week, a range of new policies have leaked from the Premier’s Private Office that suggest Allan’s team is trying to find announcements that could mollify her colleagues.

On Monday, cabinet will consider a proposal to create a new agency within Victoria Police that targets organised crime and is informed by Australia’s best criminal intelligence.

The policy has been viewed internally as a way to kill off pressure for a royal commission into Big Build corruption, tying the issue together with other political problems such as an increase in firebombings in Melbourne, and community concerns about youth crime rates.

Another leaked policy floated amending the rate cap rules to allow councils to better recoup the costs needed to pay staff – a policy supported by the Australian Services Union but quickly seized on by the opposition as a cost-of-living attack.

One MP said Allan was in denial about her support and rather than step aside would likely enforce party rules for a spill, which requires a vote of the Labor membership if the caucus result is contested.

But they also said those conspiring needed to “piss or get off the pot”.

A senior Labor figure said Allan’s leadership had been doomed, and she was now incredibly unpopular despite being given time to connect with voters.

“There is now an opportunity to push the reset button, give confidence back to voters and remind voters of the benefits of a strong Labor government.”

The latest Resolve Political Monitor has Allan’s likeability at minus 36, her equal lowest result on record.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson maintains a lead on preferred premier, with 43 per cent of voters saying they want her to lead the state compared with 24 per cent for Allan.