Before Caesar, there were Ramesses II and Šuppiluliuma I. The Eastern Mediterranean of the Late Bronze Age was dominated by great powers and complex civilizations, from the Mycenaeans in Greece to the Hittites of Anatolia and the Ancient Egyptians in northern Africa. That was until around 1,200 B.C.E., when many of those civilizations fell or experienced steep declines.

Previous research has linked the collapse to periods of severe and persistent drought (among other factors). Now, new research published in Science Advances has shown that the most devastating droughts occurred when multiple climate systems interacted.

“Often when we discuss climate associated with civilization collapse, we picture a unique event that’s perhaps externally driven and exceptionally rare,” first author Katherine Power, a Ph.D. student in the Department of Physical Geography at Stockholm University, Sweden, told Discover.

“But as this study shows, the combination of gradual background change and natural variability is enough to push societies past ecological and societal thresholds. It is not the big catastrophic event we picture, but natural climate events amplifying each other,” Power added.

Read More: Ancient Boat Carvings Suggest Bronze Age Europe Was More Connected Than We Thought

The Late Bronze Age Collapse

Prior to its collapse, the Mediterranean and Near East of the Late Bronze Age was a region of powerful kingdoms and complex societies connected through trade, a love of copper and tin, and strong diplomatic ties.

Then, around the turn of the thirteenth century, within just decades, major civilizations — like the Hittites — had disappeared completely. Others — like the Ancient Egyptians — hung on and survived the turmoil, but suffered defeat and invasion at the hands of a mysterious group known as the Sea Peoples.

Investigating Ancient Climates

To investigate the climatic conditions of the time, and how weather-related stresses may have contributed to the collapse, Power and colleagues used paleoclimate models to study 8,000 years of climate history in the Mediterranean ending in 1950 C.E.

The results show a gradual shift towards a drier climate (aridification), triggered by subtle changes in the Earth’s orbit. Against this long-term trend — which spanned thousands of years — the region was also affected by short-term cycles driven by natural variations in the Atlantic Ocean and atmosphere. This triggered a series of multi-century episodes of intense drought, the most severe of which took place between 1,400 B.C.E. and 900 B.C.E., coinciding with the collapse.

According to the researchers, the addition of these shorter-term fluctuations produced weather effects and droughts that were far more catastrophic than would have occurred from the long-term drying trend alone. This could have resulted in water shortages, which could in turn impact agriculture and threaten food security.

“This combination of intensified hydroclimatic stress resulted in severe regional droughts,” said Power. “Exactly how these droughts manifested through the societies and how the collapse exactly unfolded remains unanswered.”

Lessons From The Past

As the paper was being published, several parts of southern Europe have been contending with a particularly extreme wildfire season.

According to the United Nations (UN), the number of wildfires in Spain and Portugal has more than doubled since last year, and news reports reveal hundreds of thousands of people have been forced to flee their homes to escape the flames.

The aridification of the thirteenth century B.C.E. is not directly comparable to today’s anthropogenic warming, and the civilizations of the Late Bronze Age are very different from today's countries, but the research does provide insight into the region's vulnerability, said Power.

“Perhaps the best warning to take is that slow, gradual change coupled with normal climate events is already a risk to societies,” Power explained. “If we add in anthropogenic forcing, the risk only grows.”

Read More: Bronze Age Pigeons May Have Lived Alongside Humans and Been Ritually Eaten 3,000 Years Ago

Article Sources

Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:

• This article references information from a study published inScience Advances: Holocene ocean-atmosphere coupling and Mediterranean sensitivity to Atlantic circulation: Lessons from the Late Bronze Age collapse
• This article references information from the United Nations: Wildfires surge across Europe as Spain and France battle major blazes
• This article references information from the BBC: More than 300,000 flee wildfires in France and Spain