'There's something smelly about the story' - NZ unlikely to be involved in Russian spying, say experts

New Zealand is being accused of spying on Russia, but experts are questioning just how likely that is and say the event seems bound to worsen relations which are already poor.

The as-yet-unnamed man's arrest in the south-east city of Khabarovsk - first reported by The Moscow Times and accompanied by a video from Russia's federal security service the FSB - was for allegedly using email and instant messaging to provide information to the NZ Security Intelligence Service.

Security analyst Paul Buchanan told RNZ there was good reason to be highly sceptical of the Russian statements.

"It has a certain amateurish aspect to it. I seriously doubt that this was a SIS operation."

He explained the supposed links to the Five Eyes network did not make sense.

"The Five Eyes is the signals and technical intelligence gathering network. It doesn't do human intelligence collection operations, such as what this individual is alleged to have done."

The SIS doescollect human intelligence, but Buchanan said it was very rare for such agencies to accept proactive approaches from foreigners like this man.

"The Russians have said said that this fellow is motivated by greed.

"People who are motivated by money are the least reliable assets to cultivate."

He also questioned the location.

He said it was possible the area was a staging ground for joint Chinese-Russian operations, and if so human agents may be needed to get past digital countermeasures.

But he would be surprised if information could not be discovered by technical means using the capabilities of the Five Eyes.

"There's something smelly about the story."

'A lot of disinformation'

Waikato University professor of international law Al Gillespie was similarly doubtful about Russian claims.

He said the information coming out of Russia was very "untrustworthy".

"Their media is of a very low calibre, and there's a lot of disinformation and misinformation that comes out."

He indicated it was almost unheard of for New Zealand to be facing accusations of spying, but Russia arresting its own citizens for spying was not.

He said around a couple of hundred Russian citizens per year were charged with espionage or spying.

Gillespie said to look out for the evidence that's presented and the reaction from both countries when the case goes to trial.

"The normal practice is that when one country says that they suspect another country of spying, they will expel official personnel.

"If they make a number of New Zealanders persona non grata, then New Zealand would probably respond in in the same manner."

There was a consensus that the relationship with Russia was poor, and this latest episode will only make it worse.