Johor and Melaka could get up to 40% less rainfall during Northeast Monsoon due to El Niño: Malaysia Met department

The Northeast Monsoon season in Malaysia typically begins in late October or early November and ends in late March.

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s southern states Johor and Melaka could get between 20 per cent and 40 per cent less rainfall as the country enters the Northeast Monsoon season later this year because of the El Niño phenomenon, according to meteorological department MetMalaysia.

Speaking on Bernama TV’s Ruang Bicara television programme “El Niño: Is Malaysia Ready?”, MetMalaysia Director-General Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip said on Monday (Jul 27) that the east coast of Sabah could also experience a decline in rainfall due to its location closer to the Pacific Ocean, as compared to the rest of Malaysia.

“Based on the information we have and rainfall projections six months ahead, we do not expect significant effects on the east coast (of Peninsular Malaysia) until the end of the year,” he said, as quoted by national news agency Bernama.

The Northeast Monsoon season in Malaysia typically begins in late October or early November and ends in late March, with Peninsular Malaysia’s east coast states - referring to Kelantan, Terengganu and Pahang - usually receiving the highest rainfall in November and December, Hisham added.

However, the El Niño effects are expected to become more pronounced towards the end of the monsoon season before peaking early next year.

Temperatures exceeding 35 °C could occur between February and May next year across the country and possibly extend into June, he added.

According to Hisham, areas that typically experience high temperatures during very strong El Niño episodes include Perlis, Kedah, northern Perak, inland areas of Kelantan and parts of inland Pahang.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, causing changes in wind, atmospheric pressure and rainfall patterns around the world.

Early this month, MetMalaysia forecast a super El Niño to develop in November and last until January next year, bringing hotter weather, reduced rainfall and a risk of transboundary haze.

A super El Niño refers to an exceptionally intense version of El Niño in which surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise by 2°C or more.

Hisham said on Monday that an analysis of Malaysia’s temperatures since the 1980s showed an increase of 0.19°C per decade due to global warming, while a strong El Niño could raise temperatures by up to 0.7°C above normal.

"If this El Niño reaches the very strong level that is expected, the country's highest temperature could surpass the record of 40.1°C recorded on Apr 9, 1998, with a potential temperature surge occurring between March and May 2027," he said, as quoted by Bernama.

MetMalaysia’s Deputy Director-General of Operations Ambun Dindang told Berita RTM early this month that previous strong El Niño episodes coincided with some of the country's highest recorded temperatures, including 40.1°C in Chuping, Perlis in April 1998 and 39.3°C in Batu Embun, Perak in 2016.

Malaysia saw strong El Nino episodes recorded in 1997 to 1998 and 2015 to 2016, according to MetMalaysia’s National Climate Centre Director Ahmad Fairudz Jamaluddin.

During the super El Niño phenomenon in 2015, more than 250 schools in northern Peninsular Malaysia had to be temporarily closed due to extreme daily temperatures exceeding 37°C, said Ahmad Fairudz.

Water level at Johor’s Linggiu Reservoir that provides water to Singapore also fell to about 54.5 per cent, the lowest in its 20-year history then.

Hisham cautioned that reduced rainfall and rising temperatures could affect agricultural and livestock production, lower water levels in reservoirs and dams and increase the risk of forest fires and transboundary haze.

To mitigate the impact of dry weather, Hisham said that MetMalaysia is providing technical advice to support cloud-seeding operations aimed at increasing water levels in catchment areas, although such measures can only be carried out when weather conditions are suitable.

“El Niño cannot be controlled because it is a natural phenomenon. What we at MetMalaysia can do is provide information on the conditions that are expected to occur,” he said on Monday, as quoted by Bernama.

Separately, Malaysia’s economy minister Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir said on Monday that an extreme El Niño weather could drive up Malaysia’s electricity consumption and disrupt food supply chains, adding to inflationary pressures.

Although peak electricity demand has risen by about 2.5 gigawatts, Akmal said that hotter weather could further increase energy demand, particularly from households as the use of cooling equipment rises, reported media platform The Edge.