Five AFL draft prospects tied to a club through father-son or academy connections could attract top-20 bids in November.
No.1 pick-elect Dougie Cochrane (Port Adelaide), Cody Walker (Carlton), Ethan Matthews (GWS), Caylen Murray (Brisbane Lions) and Khaled El Souki (Western Bulldogs) are those players.
The situation is far more intriguing for the 2026 draft since the league’s rule changes in April made it more difficult to match bids, particularly for high-performing teams.
Clubs can use only two selections to match a bid – up to, and including, pick No.36 – while another key difference is that ladder position dictates whether they must pay a “loading” or receive a discount when matching.
Each selection has a descending points value, starting with 3000 for pick No.1, 2481 for No.2, 2178 for No.3, and so on. The other change is clubs that finish in the bottom five and have their top pick pushed back because of a matched bid will be compensated with an extra second-round pick.
Cochrane and Walker appear certain to be the top two selections, via bids from whichever club – probably Richmond or Essendon – finishes on the bottom. Both the Power and Blues are well-stocked to match in that likely scenario.
The Giants are in 12th position and also won’t have a problem matching a top-10 bid on academy prospect Matthews, but it is a different story for Murray and El Souki.
Recruiters who spoke to The Age on condition of anonymity believe Murray is in the top-10 mix and should be gone inside the first 15 picks, with one predicting a bid could come as early as No.7.
Brisbane brought in the Ashcrofts – Will and Levi – Jaspa Fletcher, Daniel Annable, Sam Marshall and Ty Gallop in recent years thanks to father-son and academy connections, but face a much tougher decision this time on Murray, who shone at this year’s under-18 championships.
The Lions, who won the past two flags, have surged into the top four, so could have a late first-round pick, but also might have to pay a 20 per cent loading fee to match a Murray bid if they finish first or second.
For example, if a club bids on Murray at No.10, plus a 20 per cent loading, the Lions would need to come up with 1531 points to match. If the loading was 10 per cent (for finishing third or fourth), the figure would be 1404.
Both scenarios, based on a top-four ladder finish, would require the Lions to bring in a higher selection, or they would forfeit their access to Murray.
They might lose academy recruit and premiership midfielder Marshall, who St Kilda are monitoring, as well as Will McLachlan (who has kicked 27 goals from eight VFL games so far this season), which could add draft picks to their portfolio.
El Souki is not in top-10 contention, but may attract a bid in the teens. That would not typically be problematic, but the Bulldogs are in the thick of the race for the signature of the Power’s restricted free agent star Zak Butters. Port Adelaide are likely to match any rival offer, meaning the Dogs – if successful – would need to broker a trade for Butters, which would likely leave them without much draft collateral.
Richmond, Geelong and Collingwood are among Butters’ other suitors.
North keen on Hawk?
Hawthorn forward-ruck Max Ramsden could be playing elsewhere next season.
The 23-year-old has appeared at AFL level only 11 times since the Hawks selected him in the 2022 mid-season draft. His path to the senior side will become even more difficult with Gold Coast star Ben King seemingly keen to play in the brown and gold.
North Melbourne are one club in the market for more talls, with 203-centimetre Ramsden believed to be among the players on their radar.
His best AFL game was against the Roos in round 16 last year when he booted a career-high three goals.
Ramsden, who is out of contract at season’s end, is averaging 15 disposals, four marks, 19 hitouts and three clearances in 13 VFL games this year, including kicking seven goals. Fellow Hawthorn key-position players Calsher Dear, Will McCabe and James Blanck also don’t have a deal for 2027.
Jack Scrimshaw is contracted for next season and currently focused on recovering from a knee injury, but is another Hawk who could be headed to Arden Street. The sweet-kicking defender played under North coach Alastair Clarkson at Hawthorn.
The Kangaroos’ first-choice key forwards are Nick Larkey, Jack Darling and Cooper Trembath, who also provides ruck relief for No.1 big man Tristan Xerri.
North Melbourne forward-ruck Callum Coleman-Jones is out of contract at season’s end.
This young Demon is going nowhere
Promising Melbourne forward Matt Jefferson has agreed to a new two-year contract as he blossoms alongside Jacob van Rooyen and Bayley Fritsch in the Demons’ attack.
Jefferson, 22, and van Rooyen, 23, were both first-round selections and have taken time to develop, including each spending periods in the VFL, but are amid career-best campaigns.
Van Rooyen has kicked 37 goals in 2026 for finals-bound Melbourne, while Jefferson is up to 15, highlighted by a bag of four a fortnight ago against North Melbourne.
After already locking away Fritsch for three more years, there is increasing confidence that fellow free agent and breakout midfielder Tom Sparrow will also knock back rival interest to remain at the club.
But there is yet to be any dialogue with unrestricted free agent defender Christian Salem, who is back playing in the VFL after recovering from a foot fracture.
The Demons’ three mid-season draft recruits – Lucas Cooke, Joel Fitzgerald and Max Mapley – are all likely to score deals for next year. Fitzgerald, in particular, has made an instant impression, averaging 21 disposals across six appearances.
Still no offer for Pie
Ed Allan’s emergence as a defensive midfielder is yet to earn him a contract offer from in-form Collingwood.
The 22-year-old, the No.19 pick in the 2022 draft out of Claremont, took time to win a regular spot in the Magpies’ senior side, but has played 10 matches in a row at AFL level for the first time.
Allan has amassed at least 16 disposals in nine of those games, and kicked two last-quarter goals on Thursday night as Collingwood ran over the top of the Crows in Adelaide for an important victory. He also helped restrict Adelaide skipper Jordan Dawson to only seven touches after half-time.
Allan has not paused contract negotiations, and coach Craig McRae said a fortnight ago that his form was good enough to warrant an extension if he could maintain it.
“He seems like he is really starting to settle into it,” McRae said at the time.
“[It is] probably the first time he has had a comfort that he doesn’t have to wait for selection to see if he is in the team. That’s hard when you are living that.”
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