The Federal Reserve is set to release its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday, with a whiff of dissension and drama in the air as policymakers plot their future course.
Though markets largely expect the Federal Open Market Committee to stay on hold, recent talk from several officials indicate there's a sizeable constituency to at least consider a hike.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan was most specific, saying she thinks rates should be "modestly" higher, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Governor Christopher Waller all have made statements supportive of tighter policy should inflation persist.
That could mean at least a few dissents at this meeting and a narrower line for Chairman Kevin Warsh to walk when he hosts the post-meeting news conference. Traders on Wednesday morning were pricing in about a 64% probability of no change at the meeting, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
"Should inflation data accelerate, or even stay stubbornly elevated, the Fed will likely increase rates, but for the time being, the encouraging inflation data has afforded the Fed some breathing room to wait for more signals," Christophe Hodge, head of U.S. economics at Natixis CIB Americas, said in a note.
Indeed, the prevailing market sentiment is that the Fed stays on hold at the current 3.5%-3.75% target for its key interest rate, then enacts a hike come September assuming that inflation data still shows rates well above the central bank's 2% goal.
The inflation numbers of late have been at least a little comforting, as a brief decline in gasoline saw the consumer price index post a surprise 0.4% drop in June. But the price break at the pump has been reversed in the past few weeks as the situation in the Middle East has been highly volatile.
"We're going to have an interesting set of data points come out between now and the September meeting," said Jerry Templeman, a former senior analyst at the New York Fed and now vice president of economics and fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management. "So, I don't think that we're going to necessarily be in the same position that we are today."
The Fed will release its decision at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Warsh's news conference at 2:30. There will be no Summary of Economic Projections released.