India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during August, with precipitation expected to be less than 94% of the long-period average, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday (July 31, 2026).

The forecast also projects below-normal rainfall during the second half of the southwest monsoon season (August–September), although some parts of peninsular India, central, eastern, and northeastern India, and the northern parts of the northwest could receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

The below-normal rainfall in August is likely in many parts of the country, except over much of eastern peninsular India, some parts of northwest and central India, and isolated areas of eastern and northeastern India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is possible. Maximum temperatures during the month are expected to remain above normal across most of the country, while minimum temperatures are likely to be normal to above normal across most regions.

July rains near normal

The IMD also said moderate El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific are expected to strengthen through the remainder of the monsoon season, while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are likely to persist before a positive IOD develops during September. The latter can help monsoon rains.

For the August–September period as well, the IMD forecasted rainfall at below 94% of the long-period average, indicating a weaker-than-normal second half of the southwest monsoon.

The outlook follows a near-normal July at the all-India level, despite forecasts issued earlier in the season that had anticipated subdued rainfall because of the developing El Niño. On June 30, the IMD had forecast a minimum 6% deficit in July rainfall but India has so far got 101% of the usual amount of rainfall. July is the rainiest of the four monsoon months and critical to agriculture. According to the IMD, while July’s rainfall helped erase much of the deficit that had built up during June, the distribution of rainfall remained uneven across regions.

A long-term chart released by the IMD shows considerable year-to-year variability in August rainfall since 1901, with no strong long-term linear trend in departures from normal over the historical record.

Published - July 31, 2026 09:55 pm IST