What a ‘Godzilla El Niño’ demands of leaders

Anyone who has been to the grocery lately knows that money no longer buys what it used to. Food prices have risen significantly, driven partly by supply-chain disruptions and higher transportation and production costs associated with extreme weather and the conflict in the Middle East.

Unfortunately, there is little sign that conditions will ease up anytime soon. Climate scientists and key agencies have warned of the possibility of a “Godzilla El Niño,” named after the giant Japanese monster to convey the possible scale of the temperature anomaly. El Niño is expected to intensify over the coming months and persist into early 2027. This may cause severe droughts, intense heat waves, and heavier rainfall or flooding in different parts of the world.

Climate-risk analytics provider Risilience warned that an extreme El Niño could trigger another severe shock to global food prices, with prices of different commodities rising by 10 to 50 percent. The most exposed crops, including rice, sugar, palm oil, and coffee, could see increases of 50 to 100 percent or more.

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History shows how vulnerable the Philippines is to this phenomenon, particularly for those whose livelihoods greatly depend on rainfall. During the 1997-1998 El Niño, 70 percent of the country experienced severe drought. Water levels in Angat Dam, which supplies Metro Manila’s drinking water and supports irrigation and power generation, fell to only 32 percent of normal during the most critical months. This led to water rationing and the suspension of irrigation across 27,000 hectares of farmland. During the most recent El Niño in 2023–2024, Philippine agriculture sustained an estimated P57.78 billion in losses, while crop production declined by 4.2 percent.

In response, the government has reactivated the Department of Agriculture’s (DA) El Niño Task Force and is focusing on protecting food production, helping farmers adapt, and securing the country’s water supply. The DA is targeting P1 billion in assistance for farmers and fisherfolk and P1.6 billion for solar-powered irrigation projects. It also plans to expand cold-storage and blast-freezing facilities to reduce post-harvest losses and preserve farm produce.

Some organizational leaders may be tempted to treat El Niño as a weather event to be monitored in the background. It would be wiser, however, to recognize it as an immediate economic, operational, and human-resource risk. Understanding its potential effects on supply chains, infrastructure, employee welfare, and productivity requires urgent attention and anticipatory action.

For many organizations, this begins with a climate-risk assessment to identify how drought, flooding, extreme heat, food inflation, water scarcity, or power interruptions could affect their operations. This requires mapping the geographic exposure of facilities and suppliers, determining which critical resources could become scarce, identifying employees and communities at greatest risk, and estimating the financial implications. These findings must then be incorporated into a business-continuity plan, with preparations for baseline, moderate, and severe scenarios.

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Those of us in the education sector must proactively prepare by developing continuity plans that allow learning to proceed safely AND effectively when classrooms become unusable or classes must be suspended.

As early as now, school leaders should assess the resources available to the families they serve to determine the most appropriate remote-learning approach. If classes move online, do all students have access to a device, a stable internet connection, and a suitable place to study? Which students do not have a parent or guardian who can guide them at home? Answering these questions in advance can help schools avoid adopting a one-size-fits-all approach that could leave the most vulnerable learners behind.

Since modular learning may be the most feasible option for many schools, take-home worksheets must also account for the realities of the age of artificial intelligence (AI). Activities that ask students to produce generic written responses can easily be completed using AI tools. Instead, students can be asked to evaluate and compare competing explanations for a concept, identify gaps or errors in an argument, and defend their conclusions using evidence gathered through direct observation or community interviews.

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As someone who runs a nonprofit organization at a time when households are already struggling with rising living costs, I know that an extreme El Niño could place even greater pressure on families. For social-purpose organizations, preparedness means finding ways to protect fair and adequate compensation for our employees despite limited financial resources. It also means securing funding early for food assistance, livelihood support, and other programs that can help our communities navigate higher food, electricity, and water costs.

Most importantly, we need to accept that climate-related disruption is not a one-time emergency. El Niño will eventually end, but other climate pressures will continue to recur. Climate risk must therefore be embedded in regular organizational planning rather than addressed only when warnings become urgent. By systematically identifying vulnerabilities and investing in adaptive systems, organizations can move from reactive crisis management toward genuine climate resilience.

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eleanor@shetalksasia.com