Fuel prices have tipped over $2 a litre in NSW hours after the Albanese government’s fuel excise discount came to an end, triggering fresh warnings of more increases as the prolonged conflict in the Middle East threatens global oil supply.

The average price for regular unleaded passed the $2 mark on Monday morning after the fuel excise discount – delivering an approximate 17¢ saving – was withdrawn at midnight. The average national price for unleaded also rose above $2, the first time since May, according to Fuel Check.

Prices on Monday morning were 13¢ higher than what was recorded in Sydney last week. Sydney petrol prices rose by an average of 2.9¢ a litre overnight, according to the NRMA, less than the 3.2¢ recorded nationally.

The highest price for regular in Sydney was at $2.19 in Berowra, and the cheapest $1.84 in Tempe. Tourists enjoying the snow at Thredbo were slugged $2.87 a litre for unleaded on Monday, the most expensive rate in NSW.

NRMA spokesperson Peter Khoury expects retail prices to continue rising this week as the excise is reapplied, but flagged any further rises would depend on developments outside Australia.

“The flipside is what actually happens globally to oil prices, we know 17¢ a litre will come in, but if oil prices fall that will negate some of it,” Khoury said. “If we get good news from the Middle East the price will go down, if it doesn’t, it will go back up again.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers reiterated there were no plans to reintroduce the excise discount – which began in April and was extended ahead of its original end date in July – and warned service stations they would be watched “like a hawk” for any price gouging.

“The [Australian Competition and Consumer Commission] has the powers that they need to fine … servos and suppliers up to $100 million per offence, and so servos and suppliers are on notice,” Chalmers told ABC Radio National on Monday morning.

“They can’t use the return to normal settings with the excise as cover for treating motorists as mugs.”

Fuel shocks triggered by the Middle East war has led to a surge in the uptake of electric and hybrid vehicles, according to data released by the Australian Automobile Association (AAA) on Sunday.

The AAA found almost half of all new car sales in the June quarter were for electric or hybrid vehicles, in what marked the Australia’s largest-ever quarterly rise in EV sales.

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