The by-elections held on July 30, 2026 in three Assembly constituencies across three Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled States threw up some surprises, but it may be risky to read them as indicators of any definitive or enduring political trend. Still, Bankipur in Bihar, Datia in Madhya Pradesh and Manjalpur in Gujarat were among the most closely watched electoral contests. Though involving only three seats, the results were significant, offering clues about regional political currents, the strength of major parties and the prospects of emerging political formations. These were also the first electoral tests after student protests forced the BJP to remove Union Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan on July 25. The most consequential result came from Bankipur. The seat fell vacant after BJP national president Nitin Nabin resigned following his election to the Rajya Sabha. Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) founder Prashant Kishor chose the constituency for his electoral debut, turning what would otherwise have been a routine by-election into a high-profile political contest. He defeated BJP candidate Neeraj Kumar by 19,324 votes, ending decades of BJP dominance in the constituency. It marks the JSP’s first major electoral success and gives Mr. Kishor political legitimacy after years as an election strategist.

In Datia, the Congress secured an important victory as its candidate, Ghanshyam Singh, defeated BJP candidate Ashutosh Tiwari by just over 6,000 votes. Unlike Bankipur, Datia witnessed a robust voter turnout of 71.44%, indicating strong local engagement with the contest and suggesting that the Congress retains pockets of resilience in Madhya Pradesh despite the BJP’s dominance. The victory does not alter the balance of power in the Assembly, but gives the Congress evidence that local anti-incumbency and candidate-specific factors can still work in its favour. For the BJP, the defeat serves as a reminder that its Statewide strength does not automatically translate into victory in every constituency. The third contest, in Manjalpur produced a different outcome. The BJP retained the constituency, with Satish Govindbhai Patel defeating his rival by over 30,000 votes. Manjalpur demonstrates the BJP’s ability to hold its core support base. At the same time, the outcomes in Bankipur and Datia suggest some volatility among the BJP’s core social base of Hindu voters, particularly the upper castes. There is also a larger acceptance among the electorate for fresh political experiments, and that is a trend that connects what happened in the Tamil Nadu Assembly elections with Bankipur. If this trend holds, the challenge will be not only for the BJP but also for other legacy parties, including and particularly the Congress.

Published - August 05, 2026 12:20 am IST