Sara’s lead over Leni narrows in hypothetical matchup – OCTA
MANILA, Philippines — Vice President Sara Duterte’s lead over Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo has tightened in the latest hypothetical one-on-one presidential matchup released by the OCTA Research group.
The poll, conducted from July 4 to 11, found that 43 percent of the respondents would support Duterte in a hypothetical matchup against Robredo, who received 34 percent.
Support for Duterte went down from 46 percent in OCTA’s first quarter survey, while it went down from 35 percent for Robredo.
This means that the Vice President’s lead narrowed from 11 percentage points to just nine points.
The remaining 22 percent were undecided, up from 19 percent in the first quarter survey.
According to OCTA, the most notable change occurred among respondents in Metro Manila, where preference for Robredo declined from 52 percent to 34 percent.
“Duterte’s share, by contrast, increased only two points, well within the margin of error,” the firm said.
“This transformed Robredo’s previous 20-point NCR advantage into a statistical tie,” it added.
“Crucially, this movement was accompanied by a substantial jump in the uncommitted share – from roughly 15 percent to 32 percent. The change therefore reads as a shift away from Robredo toward uncertainty, not a direct transfer of support to Duterte,” it said.
OCTA said this change may be due to Robredo’s statement that she does not intend to run for president in 2028.
Mindanao support
Mindanao, meanwhile, remained Duterte’s base, although support went down from 88 percent to 76 percent.
“The decline indicates some genuine softening in the intensity of Duterte’s Mindanao support, though it did not alter her dominance in the region. Subnational comparisons should still be interpreted with appropriate caution given the wider margins of error at that level,” added OCTA.
The Vice President is facing an impeachment trial for alleged misuse of funds and supposedly hiring an assassin to kill President Marcos in the event of her death, among other charges.
The survey had 1,200 respondents and a margin of error of plus/minus three percent.
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