Liam Dann, Business Editor at Large for New Zealand’s Herald, works as a writer, columnist, radio commentator and as a presenter and producer of videos and podcasts.

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Some might argue it’s a mentality that took hold during Covid and which we failed to shake.

Either way, it’s both understandable and unhelpful in a world where increased volatility, perpetual tech disruption and higher costs seem to have taken hold.

There might still be an economic recovery coming in 2027. In fact, if you look hard enough, there might be some signs that it is already underway.

Most of the economists have something that looks like a reasonable outlook for New Zealand plugged into their longer-term forecasts.

But after the three false starts in three years, it seems foolhardy to be counting on it.

However much cyclical economic improvement we get in the next 12 months, it seems highly unlikely we will see a return to the stable, disinflationary geopolitical conditions of the pre-Covid decade.

That cycle is bigger than New Zealand and our domestic politics.

It will turn one day. You’d have to believe that all this AI adoption will efficiently drive greater productivity and lower costs – otherwise why are we bothering?

But for now, New Zealand businesses (and the rest of us) need to adapt to this strange, unsettled world.

I don’t think that is a wildly controversial view. I guess it might depend on how it is framed.

I don’t claim to understand the nuances of what lands well politically and what doesn’t. I’d be a terrible politician.

I’m constantly exasperated by how stupid the general public can be.

As the late, great United States comedian George Carlin used to say: Think about how stupid the average person is. Then remember that half the people are stupider than that.

Politicians have to pretend that isn’t true. Publicly at least.

The stakes are much lower for me. I’m not trying to get elected to anything (and I reckon Herald readers are generally on the right side of the average intelligence equation).

But at the relatively inconsequential risk of making myself unpopular with all Kiwis doing it tough right now, I think Luxon was on the right track at the Rotorua Business Chamber event.

At least I think he would have been if he’d stuck to pushing back on the notion of “hanging on”.

During an onstage chat, Chamber chief executive Melanie Short highlighted the brutal reality for many small businesses.

They are watching their margins being squeezed by higher costs, but they can’t pass on the costs because of the low demand in the economy.

There’s no denying the tough conditions.

“How long can we hang on?” she asked.

Luxon’s answer was apparently so bad that it later required an apology.

So what did he actually say?

“I think that’s a negative view, to be honest,” Luxon said.

“Like we’re entrepreneurs and business people, and I get it. You know, if you’re not retooling and radically disrupting your business, you ain’t doing the job.

“You know, you have to disrupt yourself aggressively before you get disrupted by global events, and if you keep thinking you want the same business model, the same customer mix, the same margin structure, you know you’ve got to be retooling and refinancing and rehoming, and that’s just the reality of business people all around the world.

“So, my job is to make sure I’m setting up the conditions for you to be able to go create that growth.”

He should have stopped there.

In front of a business audience, it ought to be safe territory for a centre-right politician to make the case for innovation and self-reliance.

He also committed to government policy which delivers good, stable conditions from which growth can be achieved.

Unfortunately for Luxon and his strategists, he forged on with an anecdote about the more self-reliant approach he had encountered in the US business world.

He eventually delivered the offending soundbite, suggesting local business had a “parent-child mentality“ when it came to the Government.

Ouch. Okay, maybe I do know enough about politics to get that it was never going to land well.

It’s patronising. It implies that business people are expecting some sort of government handout.

I don’t think that is true and I don’t think it was implicit in the question.

The PM should be well aware of how hard-working and resourceful New Zealand businesses are – not based on his own (largely corporate) business experience but based on his experiences meeting them and talking to them on his political travels.

I’m sure he is.

But I suspect the original question – “how long can we hang on?” – was what set him off.

Hanging on, survival mode, whatever you want to call it.

It can only be a short-term strategy. It’s useful for a crisis with a clear finish line.

Sadly, I think we’ve moved past that stage now.

I sense that most businesses understand this. No one wants to hear about “green shoots”.

When I talk to business people, I get a sense of well-justified scepticism about any predictions which suggest everything will be booming again next year.

That suggests to me that business people are adapting and innovating.

Others (as we’re seeing in the liquidation stats) are shutting down.

But that doesn’t mean they won’t be back.

In relative terms, these remain tough economic conditions. I still expect they will get better.

One of these days we’ll look around and see that a real recovery has taken hold.

Watching, waiting and counting the days for it to arrive isn’t a way to get us there any faster.

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003.

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