• Satellite imagery independently confirms a Russian Tu-95MS strategic bomber was destroyed in Ukraine SBU drone strike on Engels-2 air base
• The Tu-95 is essentially an impossible-to-replace Cold War-era asset with approximately only 60 in service and at least 10 photo-confirmed losses since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022
• The loss is damning for Russian armed forces, which have deployed new hardened shelters and painted decoy bombers in a bid to trick drone operators who successfully destroyed the aircraft from an 800 km range

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that the country's Security Service had recently destroyed a Tu-95 strategic bomber at Russia's Engels-2 air base, but the missing piece was a lack of independent proof confirming the strike.

With the Ukrainian side claiming an 800 km deep strike at one of Russia's most important airfields, many often ask for proof in a war that sees both sides exaggerate kills and attempt to hide losses to further their own narratives.

This time, however, receipts did come in the form of satellite imagery published by the open-source intelligence group AviVector and corroborated by Planet Labs satellite images obtained by Schemes, the investigative project of Radio Free Europe \& Radio Liberty, showing a destroyed TU-95MS on the tarmac at Engels-2 Air Base.

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An expensive loss for Russia and why it matters

The Tu-95 is a machine from another age: a swept-wing turboprop that first flew in 1952, powered by NK-12 engines that remain the most powerful turboprops ever built and make it one of the loudest aircraft in the sky.

The Tu-95MS variant, adapted from the Tu-142 maritime patrol airframe, is Russia's primary carrier of the Kh-101 cruise missiles that have battered Ukrainian cities throughout the war, hauling up to six missiles on an internal rotary launcher, with the modernized Tu-95MSM adding new engines, avionics, and pylons for up to eight externally mounted Kh-101s or nuclear-tipped Kh-102s.

While the Kh-102s have never actually been used in war, given their non-conventional capabilities, the fact that the Tu-95MS is capable of essentially conducting a nuclear war from an airborne position highlights how central it is to Russia's overall deterrence, even as it can no longer replace its losses: the production infrastructure that created them is gone, while the promised replacement, the PAK DA stealth bomber program exists only on paper for now.

The move is important in a war that is psychological as much as it is asymmetric between the two foes: it demonstrates that Ukraine can strike deep into Russian territory and target even its most remote airfields. In addition, the Tu-95MS is one of the more important workhorses of Russia's strike campaign against Ukraine, often used to lob missiles at the latter's cities and positions alike; the attack essentially neuters Russian capabilities, with only \~60 of them currently in operation.

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The Ukrainians have wasted no time highlighting both the financial aspect of the hit as well as its psychological impact, stating on Telegram (translated):

"The SBU systematically destroys important elements of the Russian military machine. Each liquidated strategic bomber means dozens of unlaunched missiles over Ukrainian cities, saved Ukrainian lives, and tens of millions of dollars in irretrievable losses for the enemy. Russian strategic aviation can no longer feel safe even at its most remote military airfields."

On the flipside, a single bomber being taken out does not change the war; Russia launched cruise missile salvos before July 16 and will probably launch them after despite the small loss in capability. It will also continue hardening its air defenses and hangars alike while painting decoys to mislead drone operators who manage to make it through, even as its jammers grow increasingly sophisticated.

But a fleet capped by a 34-year-old production shutdown, already down double digits thanks to successful strikes such as Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb, losing airframes at a base it has spent months fortifying, is a fleet whose every remaining mission carries a quietly rising price. Ukraine cannot build Tu-95s either. The difference is that a drone-touting Ukraine on the defensive doesn't need to.

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