Topline

Some Democrats are sounding alarms that state Rep. Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist who is leading polls in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, could lose to a Republican in November—a risk in a number of races across the country where progressives have won their primaries.

Key Facts

A string of surveys show Hong with a big polling lead heading into Tuesday’s race: A recent State Navigate poll shows her winning 44% of votes, followed by Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley with 22%, while a Marquette University Law School poll showed her ahead with 38% of the vote, followed by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who has since dropped out, and Crowley in third, though 34% were undecided.

Some Democrats are warning that Hong might not be able to beat presumptive Republican nominee Tom Tiffany in the general election—Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who endorsed Crowley, said “probably not” when asked recently by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel if Hong could win in November and he would not commit to endorsing her or campaigning with her if she wins the primary, he told Politico.

Crowley also told Axios “people don’t like socialists” and “socialists don’t poll very good . . . so it’s leading me to believe that she can’t win.”

The State Navigate poll shows Hong losing support to Tiffany among Democratic primary voters in November—70% said they would definitely back Hong, but 3% said they would probably support Tiffany and 5% said they would definitely back Tiffany.

An earlier Marquette Law School poll found Barnes was the only Democratic primary candidate with an advantage over Tiffany in the general election, while Hong trailed Tiffany by three percentage points.

In a sign that Republicans view Hong as a weaker candidate, an ad by Right Direction Wisconsin, which is linked to the Republican Governors Association, billed Hong as too liberal and highlighted her push to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement, which is a strategy some consider designed to rally support among Democratic voters, The New York Times noted.

Big Number

95.5%. Those are Hong’s odds of winning the primary, according to the Kalshi prediction market.

Tangent

Abdul El-Sayed’s win in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary is another swing state race that will test the progressive movement in the general election. El-Sayed won his primary by a thinner-than-expected margin last week, and polls show a near-tie between him and the Republican nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers. President Donald Trump celebrated El-Sayed’s win as “great news for the Republican Party.” Unlike Hong, El-Sayed isn’t an official member of the Democratic Socialists of America and he had the backing of prominent progressives, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., though it’s not uncommon that they wouldn’t make endorsements in gubernatorial races in states they don’t represent.

CRUCIAL QUOTE

“It would be good for @AbdulElSayed if Francesca Hong loses her bid to become the Democratic nominee in Wisconsin next week,” longtime Democratic campaign adviser David Axelrod tweeted last week. “He is a serious person. She is a font of zany liberal, faculty lounge exotica.”

Key Background

Hong is among four Democrats running to replace Evers, who is retiring at the end of the year. Crowley initially suspended his campaign in early July and endorsed Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, then re-entered the race 10 days later when Rodriguez dropped out. Barnes also dropped out, citing Hong’s lead in a statement. Hong has faced criticism for a series of controversial past social media posts, including bashing Thanksgiving in 2020, alleging the holiday is “celebrating colonialism.” She faced more criticism for her roundabout answer to CNN last week when asked if she wanted to “cancel Thanksgiving,” as she advocated for in 2020, then reversed her position in an interview with Politico, telling the outlet last week it’s actually her favorite holiday.