A prolonged spell of weak monsoon activity has triggered serious concerns across Kerala’s agrarian community as official data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) reveals a stark 35% rainfall deficit across the State for the current southwest monsoon period between June 1 and July 21. Kerala recorded an actual cumulative rainfall of just 722.1 mm against the seasonal normal of 1,106.5 mm. Out of 14 districts, 12 have fallen into the ‘deficient’ category, while one district has entered the severe ‘large deficient’ classification, leaving farmers grappling with acute water stress during a critical phase of the crop calendar.

The high-altitude district of Wayanad has emerged as the worst-affected region in the State, suffering a staggering 61% deficit. Other hill district Idukki is experiencing an equally alarming situation with a 59% deficit, receiving 530.1 mm against the expected 1,285.6 mm. Other key agricultural districts have also recorded significant shortfalls, including Kollam (-39%), Palakkad (-37%), Thrissur (-35%), and Ernakulam (-32%). Only Thiruvananthapuram (-10%) has managed to remain within normal thresholds.

The dry spell poses an immediate threat to seasonal crop cultivation timed specifically for the upcoming Onam festival market, when consumer demand and prices peak. Season-specific floriculture, which expanded significantly across regional clusters to cater to the festive demand for Pookkalams has been hit hard. Flower crops such as marigold and jasmine are suffering from moisture stress, leading to stunted plant development and premature drying. “Without timely summer showers or sustained monsoon rainfall, flower yields could plunge dramatically, forcing the State to rely almost entirely on costly imports from Tamil Nadu,” says Sujith, a farmer from Thiruvananthapuram.

Food crops

The condition will also affect essential festive food crops, raising concerns of supply shortages and price spikes ahead of Onam. Since Nendran banana requires steady soil moisture during its bunching stage, farmers fear that lack of proper rain can lead to smaller fruit sizes. “Small bananas are unlikely to command reasonable market prices. Worse still, several other crops cultivated specifically for the Onam festival are facing a similar downturn,” says Sasidharan, a farmer from Palakkad.

Agricultural experts warn that if weak monsoon conditions persist through the remainder of July, the shortfall will translate into severe supply chain bottlenecks and steep retail price spikes during Onam season. “When monsoon rains taper off during critical growth phases, the damage cascades down the entire supply chain. The Onam harvest is the financial backbone for thousands of smallholder farmers. A rain deficit in the period does not just mean smaller produce, it ruins the crop’s marketability entirely. Without proper sizing, farmers lose their bargaining power with wholesale traders and consumers will still end up paying double at retail counters due to supply scarcity,” says an official.

Published - July 21, 2026 07:22 pm IST