More than three years after the outbreak of the devastating war in April 2023, the conflict in Sudan is no longer being framed by the outdated narrative of a “power struggle between two generals,” as misrepresented by the global media.

For more than 30 months, this conflict has taken the form of a treacherous rebellion launched by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group, against the legitimate state. Throughout this process, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have waged a comprehensive defense of the homeland against this asymmetric terrorist network, not merely as a military actor, but as the legitimate representative of the Sudanese people and the sole guardian of the constitutional order and the state’s survival.

However, the past two months have brought about a structural and fundamental shift in this intractable situation, driven by the legitimate state’s integration of revolutionary military technologies into the front lines, shifting regional alliances, and the uncompromising prioritization of its sovereignty against parallel structures.

To accurately assess the current trajectory of the Sudan crisis, one must analyze the global network that links the technological military advancements recorded over the past two months, the failure of fragmented diplomatic frameworks that sought to equate the legitimate state with illegitimate militias, and the strategic imperatives for safeguarding state mechanisms on the home front.

Drones redistribute power

For much of 2024 and 2025, RSF militias held certain tactical advantages thanks to their extensive geographical mobility and guerrilla tactics. This advantage was fueled by regional external actors, which supplied them with all kinds of modern munitions, including Chinese-made tactical unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). However, in May and June 2026, the military landscape witnessed a technological revolution that shattered the RSF’s asymmetric dominance in the air.

The most significant catalyst for this transformation was the full integration of Turkish defense industry technologies, particularly the Bayraktar Akıncı UAV, into the Sudanese military’s operational doctrine. A series of historic engagements in Sudanese airspace over the past two months has transformed the Akıncı UAV into a mechanism for eliminating the air assets of insurgent elements.

In May 2026, the Sudanese Army achieved a feat that will go down in military history: it carried out the first confirmed interception in which one UAV shot down another enemy strategic UAV with an air-to-air missile. This event was not an isolated success. Weeks later, in the Tendelti region of White Nile State, a Sudanese Army Akıncı UAV intercepted a Chinese-made CH-95 (FH-95) strategic surveillance UAV deployed by the RSF in mid-air and destroyed it with a direct hit using Roketsan-manufactured air-to-air munitions. Simultaneously, a second CH-95 was neutralized on the ground before it could even take off.

The implications of this development for global military strategy are immense. Historically, neutralizing UAV threats at medium and high altitudes required expending flight hours of manned jet aircraft costing millions of dollars or deploying exorbitantly expensive surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries. By using the Akıncı platform, equipped with air-to-air missiles, the Sudanese military has succeeded in establishing a cost-effective “Anti-UAS” (Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems) layer in global military literature.

The systematic targeting of the RSF’s primary aerial surveillance and strike assets in this manner means that their logistics lines across the vast Darfur and Kordofan regions are left completely unprotected. The Sudanese military’s attainment of this absolute air superiority has strategically crippled the rebels’ offensive momentum in the states of Khartoum and Gezira by cutting off mercenaries and heavy weapons convoys attempting to infiltrate from Sudan’s western borders.

Türkiye’s historical lesson

While the battlefield is being redrawn by technological innovation, developments in the diplomatic arena over the past two months have once again exposed the limitations and weaknesses of traditional international mediation models. Multichannel peace processes, ranging from the Jeddah platform to African Union frameworks and various Europe-centered mediation initiatives, have stalled due to a single fundamental logical flaw: The insistence of international mediators on treating a legitimate army representing a well-established sovereign state and an illegitimate paramilitary terrorist network as morally and legally equal entities.

From the perspective of Sudan’s national identity and future, the RSF cannot be recognized as a legitimate political counterpart. Reports published by human rights organizations and local resistance committees over the past 60 days document that RSF militias have engaged in systematic looting, deliberate sabotage of infrastructure, and acts of violence amounting to ethnic cleansing. The bombing of bridges, hospitals, and water treatment plants in the capital and surrounding provinces is not an inevitable collateral damage of war, but a deliberate strategy aimed at destroying the social and physical fabric of the Sudanese state.

Precisely at this point, the reality Sudan presents to the world today bears a chilling resemblance to Türkiye’s relentless struggle in the past against insidious, foreign-backed parallel state structures such as the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ). The fundamental lesson that Ankara’s just state doctrine demonstrates to the entire world is this: National security and the survival of the state can never be sacrificed at the negotiating table through artificial power-sharing agreements.

Just as Türkiye learned through bitter experience that a state cannot survive with a “parallel state mechanism” infiltrating the judiciary, law enforcement and the military, and eradicated this threat at its roots, Sudan has now realized, through immense bloodshed, that two parallel armies cannot coexist within a single country. Any diplomatic formula that attempts to keep the RSF within the system as an independent or semi-autonomous armed entity will be nothing more than a guarantee of an even larger and more violent war in the future. For this reason, the political will in Sudan is clear: Peace is possible only and exclusively on the condition that the RSF is completely disbanded and the state’s legitimate monopoly on the use of force is restored.

The Grand Mosque is pictured through a balcony destroyed by shelling in downtown Khartoum, Sudan, June 25, 2026. (Reuters Photo)

Shifting regional alliances

A significant shift in the geopolitical equation surrounding Sudan is also being observed. On the first day of the war, certain regional powers provided the RSF with substantial logistical, financial and diplomatic support. However, the military realities of mid-2026 are forcing external actors to reevaluate these investments. The RSF’s inability to hold onto its strategic centers and the heavy losses it has suffered against advanced air defense systems are turning them into a difficult-to-bear political liability for their external backers.

At the same time, neighboring countries such as Türkiye, Egypt and Saudi Arabia have visibly increased their support for the SAF. This is because these countries are well aware that a fragmented Sudan, controlled by militias, would destabilize the entire Red Sea basin and the Horn of Africa, which in turn would disrupt global maritime trade and trigger massive waves of migration.

In this context, the deep strategic partnership Sudan has developed with Türkiye stands out as a successful model of bilateral defense cooperation. Unlike Western-led interventions, Ankara’s approach has focused on strengthening the Sudanese state’s legitimate institutions and enhancing its capacity for self-defense. Türkiye has not merely sold weapons to Sudan; it has transferred the technological superiority necessary for Sudan to safeguard its own sovereignty. This serves as the most concrete evidence that true regional stability can be achieved not through externally imposed political prescriptions, but through the consolidation of state capacity.

Looking ahead

As the SAF continues to advance on the ground and secure critical supply lines such as the city of Kurmuk, the coming period requires a two-pronged strategy: maintaining military readiness on one hand, and mapping out the architecture of the post-war institutional transition process on the other. The most urgent priority in the coming months is to stabilize the liberated areas, ensure the safe return of millions of displaced people, and reopen agricultural basins such as El-Gadarif and Gezira to production to counter the threat of artificial famine caused by militia blockades.

Politically, the Sudanese government must launch a national dialogue process that excludes bloodstained criminal networks and includes civil society, tribal leaders, and all actors who believe in a constitutional democracy. This war has rewritten Sudan’s social contract. The resilience demonstrated by ordinary citizens, doctors, and local solidarity networks throughout the crisis has proven that Sudan’s future belongs not to the warlords, but to the Sudanese people themselves.

The critical military operations carried out in May and July 2026 have declared to the entire world that the Sudanese state cannot be destroyed. The combination of technological modernization on the battlefield and an uncompromising stance on sovereignty at the negotiating table has broken the back of the rebellion. The message from Sudan to the international community is quite clear: True diplomacy requires protecting state integrity against militia atrocities and acknowledging that Sudan’s sovereignty is non-negotiable.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance, values or position of Daily Sabah. The newspaper provides space for diverse perspectives as part of its commitment to open and informed public discussion.

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