On Monday, President Donald Trump listed a spree of endorsements ahead of Florida’s Tuesday primary contest. But as Floridians head to the polls this evening, the most famous adopted Floridian has abstained from endorsing Rep. Cory Mills as he runs for re-election.

Mills has become an uncomfortable problem for Republicans. Last year, the House Ethics Committee opened an investigation into allegations he violated campaign finance laws, misused congressional resources and engaged in sexual misconduct or dating violence.

In October, a judge issued a restraining order against Mills that prevented him from contacting an ex-partner after he allegedly threatened to leak nude images and videos as blackmail against her. Mills has vehemently denied all allegations against him and refused to step down.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has said that the Ethics Committee investigation needs to play itself out. Some other Republicans — including Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna — have said they would vote to expel Mills.

Rep. Nancy Mace, an outspoken conservative and survivor of sexual assault, has accused Mills of “stolen valor” for his Bronze Star application given that people who served with Mills said they did not remember him saving their lives.

The heat on Mills cranked up when Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas) resigned after sexual misconduct allegations.

The allegations against Mills bubbled up again amid the allegations of domestic violence against fellow Republican Rep. Max Miller of Ohio. Despite this, House Speaker Mike Johnson has not called for Mills – or Miller, for that matter – to resign. Johnson argues that the Ethics Committee needs to play itself out before the House takes any action.

His reasons are not entirely selfless: with a tight majority, Johnson cannot afford a single lost vote or risk losing a seat to a Democrat.

Tonight presents an opportunity for Floridians to right what many Republicans see as very wrong with Mills. Three Republicans are running against him in the 7th. Luna and Rep. Mike Haridopolos have endorsed former news anchor Ryan Elijah.

Michael Johnson, who is not related to the current speaker, and Sarah Ulrich are also on the ballot.

Serious baggage aside, Republicans have a good reason to seek to cull Mills from the field: he is a serial under-performer. According to Split Ticket’s Wins Above Replacement model, Mills underperformed Trump by 3.4 percentage points in a district where Trump won by 12.6 points. In a potential Democratic wave year, Mills risks getting washed out. This might be why Gov. Ron DeSantis told reporters he had not endorsed Mills either.

Islamaphopboia versus anitsemitism on the ballot

But the Florida 7th is not the only district with a contentious primary. In Florida’s 6th district, Rep. Randy Fine is running for a full term.

Fine is responsible for some of the most racist and Islamophobic attacks in Congress, saying in response to a tweet from a pro-Palestinian activist calling dogs “unclean” in Islam, “If they force us to choose, the choice between dogs and Muslims is not a difficult one.” He’s also said, “We need more Islamophobia, not less” and that “fear of Islam is rational.”

But Fine is running against right-wing influencer Dan Bilzerian, who has peddled in antisemitism in the campaign. This week, Bilzerian posted a campaign ad using AI that calls Fine a “fat Jew” who wants to use Americans as “goy cattle” for Israel and as a “satanic whore,” depicting him with horns.

The ad was so vile, it earned a denunciation not just from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries but also from Johnson.

“People of goodwill regardless of political affiliation must reject his vile attacks on the Jewish community,” Jeffries said.

And the fights on the Democratic side are just as feisty, and before asking, yes, there are still Democrats in Florida. After the Supreme Court significantly curtailed the Voting Rights Act, DeSantis signed a new congressional map that gave Republicans an advantage.

That prompted Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) to run in the new 20th district. But some progressives and Black Democrats have criticized Schultz, who is white and Jewish, for running in a district with such a large Black population. She is currently facing substitute teacher Elijah Manley, who received the support of left-wing Democrats who do not support Wasserman Schultz’s more pro-Israel stance.

Lastly, there is Florida’s 25th district. The new Florida map made the formerly safe Democratic district a seat with a Republican advantage. Rep. Jared Moskowitz, a moderate pro-Israel Democrat, is running in the seat. But he faces a primary challenge from Oliver Larkin, a socialist who has called for cutting off military aid to Israel.

But some Democrats fear that if Larkin wins the primary, that he could put the seat, which the Cook Political Report lists as a toss-up, in Republican hands.

At the core, all four contests are about the identity of the state parties once Trump exits the stage. Since he won the state in 2016, Florida has moved from the premier swing state into a blood-red stronghold.

But now, with both Trump and DeSantis leaving state politics, Republicans are trying to figure out how much scandal and baggage they can target of anyone not named Trump. Democrats are in a fight about whether they want to focus on an internal policy debate or holding seats to help buffer a would-be majority.