Poland’s opposition is shifting further to the right ahead of an election next year and that threatens to have a major impact for the EU and Ukraine.

The nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) that ran the country from 2015 to 2023 — picking repeated battles with Brussels over rule of law and LGBTQ+ rights — split last Friday. At its heart, the feud centers on a clash between iron-fisted party leader Jarosław Kaczyński and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki.

The big question is what that rupture means for the political trajectory of a country that has one of the largest militaries in NATO and has been a key strategic ally to Kyiv since the Russian invasion.