WB cuts PH growth outlook on oil shock, uncertainty

MANILA, Philippines — The World Bank lowered its growth forecasts for the Philippines this year and in 2027, saying prolonged policy uncertainty and a spike in global oil prices have weighed on consumer spending, investment and employment.

In its latest Philippine Economic Update released Monday, the Washington-based lender projected gross domestic product to grow 3.7 percent in 2026, down from the 5.3 percent forecast it issued in December.

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It also trimmed its 2027 growth estimate to 5.2 percent from 5.4 percent previously.

“Two factors help to explain a recent growth deceleration. The first is a contraction in investment, driven by rising global and domestic policy uncertainty and a review of public infrastructure launched in mid-2025 that has temporarily slowed project execution,” the bank said.

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“The second is the current conflict in the Middle East, which produced a negative terms-of-trade shock, with a surge in global oil prices feeding through rapidly to domestic prices and further weakening economic activity,” it added. /pai INQ