Tuesday saw Democrats win in probably the most consequential Senate primary for the party when Abdul El-Sayed, the insurgent physician and former Wayne County health commissioner, won his party’s nomination for Senate against the more establishment choice, Rep. Haley Stevens.

This came despite the fact that Stevens enjoyed the support of party stalwarts Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), whose seat she sought to win, the state’s Gov. Gretchen Whitmer; former House Majority Whip James Clyburn and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. In addition, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee poured millions to get behind her.

Last week, Peters brushed off the fact that El-Sayed seemed to have a double-digit lead for the Democratic primary despite the consolidation of support.

“Polls are all over the place,” he told The Independent, though he said “I’ll support the Democratic nominee.”

The race served as a major test for progressives as Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Chris Van Hollen supported El-Sayed, as did Squad members Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.) and Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.).

It turned out Peters was right, and the polling did not accurately gauge the electorate. El-Sayed won, but by a much smaller margin than expected - and a tighter race than many other progressives have experienced in recent weeks. While El-Sayed and others saw wins during Tuesday primaries, the close result shows Democrats might not be ready to give the keys to their left flank in the coming years.

Elsewhere in Michigan, left-wing candidate Donovan McKinney knocked off incumbent Rep. Shri Thanedar in the 13th district. And progressive-backed Will Lawrence beat two establishment-oriented candidates in the swing 7th district, which Republican Rep. Tom Barrett holds.

But in Missouri, Rep. Wesley Bell, who had received backing from AIPAC, won in a 2024 rematch against former Rep. Cori Bush, a former member of the progresive “Squad.” And the fact that progressives didn’t get the landslide that internal and even some nonpartisan polls showed they would reveals just how they are still part of a coalition, not a takeover of their party.

Up until now, Democratic insurgent challenges have been isolated to deep-blue seats. In June, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani endorsed two primary challengers to incumbents–Darlializa Avila Chevalier against Rep. Adriano Espaillat and Brad Lander against Rep. Dan Goldman–and a Democratic Socialists of America-backed candidate in Claire Valdez in an open seat. All three of them triumphed. Shortly thereafter, Melato Kiros knocked off Diana DeGette in Colorado’s 1st district.

Michigan is not New York. Joe Biden only won the state in 2020 by 154,188 votes and in 2024, Elissa Slotkin won her Senate race by 19,006 votes against Rogers despite Kamala Harris losing the state.

“Moderates focus on beating Republicans, and sometimes they have to beat leftists on the way to beating Republicans. Most leftists are focused on beating Democrats the whole way through,” Liam Kerr, cofounder of the moderate Welcome PAC, told The Independent. Kerr also said that progressives and leftists focus more on beating moderates than they do on beating Republicans.

For El-Sayed to win the general, he will not only need to turn out people who voted for him in the primary, he will need to convince people who voted for Stevens to vote for him. He will also need to convince Donald Trump voters to back him or he risk Republicans winning the seat. That could matter for control in the Senate that is already razor-thin in the Republicans’ favor.

It’s a situation most progressives don’t find themselves in. Even previously progressive politicians like John Fetterman in Pennsylvania and Ruben Gallego in Arizona pivoted to the center when they ran for Senate.

Progressives have their own case to make: Massachusetts Democrat and progressive voice Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who initially backed Mallory McMorrow before she dropped out, endorsed and campaigned for El-Sayed and expressed confidence that he could win in a general election because he didn’t need millions behind him.

“I think someone who builds a real grassroots campaign and doesn't need tens of millions of dollars to be competitive is the strongest possible candidate in the general election,” she told The Independent last week.

Tuesday’s primaries show that Democratic voters, as angry as they are with their party leadership, do not want to take too many gambles with their candidates or risk losing to Republicans. And the GOP are already telegraphing how they will attack El-Sayed, simply playing videos of him pronouncing his full Arabic name “Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed.”

In neighboring Wisconsin, Democrats are in a collective panic about trying to block socialist Francesca Hong from winning the nomination for governor given her previous tweets about abolishing policing and canceling Thanksgiving.

Progressives showed how they can win primaries in swing states, but now, El-Sayed and others not only have to convince swing voters to vote for them; they have to convince traditional Democratic voters they can win and they are a risk worth taking.